A U.S. jobless forecast of 2.5%
A month after forecasting a then-uber-bullish unemployment rate of 3.5%, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, is going further — if the Fed maintains its current pace of interest rate hikes, he says, joblessness could plunge as low as 2.5% by the summer of next year.
Why it's a big deal: If that happens, it would match the lowest U.S. jobless rate since the government began tracking the figure in 1948. The precedent is two months in 1953—May and June—when the number was also 2.5%. "That was in the middle of the Korean war," when hundreds of thousands of Americans were fighting abroad and not in the work force, Zandi tells Axios.