Vance is waiting to reveal his 2028 plan
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Vice President Vance won't make a final decision on whether to run for president in 2028 until after the new year — and may wait until late spring to announce his intentions publicly, two sources with knowledge of his plans tell Axios.
Why it matters: Vance remains the early favorite to succeed President Trump as the GOP's presidential nominee, but the party's midterm losses have complicated his political future and could reshape the 2028 field.
- People familiar with Vance's thinking say he's genuinely undecided about running, and that his decision-making timeline was in place before the midterms. Advisers caution that the timing could change, however.
- Vance is still discussing a potential bid with his family, including his wife, Usha, following the birth of their fourth child, the sources said.
The big picture: Vance allies say the midterm losses haven't changed his standing as the early 2028 GOP front-runner, citing his donor network, political infrastructure and name recognition.
- Vance co-founded the secretive Rockbridge Network, which could anchor his presidential fundraising operation. The group met in Houston after the midterms.
- As Republican National Committee finance chair, Vance has cultivated relationships with major contributors. He also has ties to technology donors Peter Thiel, David Sacks and Elon Musk — the world's richest person and the GOP's biggest financier.
- Vance campaigned nationwide for the midterms, building relationships with GOP activists and officials who could prove valuable in 2028.
Behind the scenes: Vance's closest political advisers believe he should run in 2028 and that he's likely to do so, according to a person close to the vice president.
But the GOP's midterm losses have given Republicans who want to move on from the Trump administration an opening to argue for a different direction in 2028.
- Vance likely will have to answer for the Trump administration's record in 2028, potentially complicating his presidential ambitions.
- Vance privately opposed the Iran war, and some Republicans interpreted his post-midterm criticism of the conflict as an effort to distance himself from Trump's decision to attack Iran.
The intrigue: Republicans close to Vance see Trump's continued presence as another reason to delay announcing his 2028 plans.
- Vance is wary that launching a campaign too early could shift attention away from Trump and risk alienating him.
- Trump said that "a lot of people didn't like [Vance's] comments" about the Iran war, but added that he wasn't among them and insisted their relationship wasn't affected.
Zoom in: While Vance weighs a presidential campaign, a few other Republicans are doing so as well — namely Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who's been among the most active Republicans preparing for a potential 2028 run.
- Cruz's team has held meetings about a possible run, according to people familiar with his operation. But many Republicans, including some Cruz allies, doubt he could seriously challenge Vance, particularly if Trump endorses the vice president.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is viewed by some Republicans as a potentially more formidable rival to Vance.
- Rubio has attracted support from influential GOP figures, including megadonor Ken Griffin.
- But Rubio repeatedly has said he would support Vance if the VP were to run, and Rubio's workload as secretary of state and national security adviser has left him without Vance's ready-made political operation.
Other potential Republican contenders include former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
- DeSantis has been particularly outspoken, calling the GOP's midterm losses a near "extinction-level event" and pointing to Florida's Republican victories as a model for rebuilding the party.
What they're saying: A Vance spokesperson declined to comment.
