Behind the Curtain: Democrats' algorithm trap

A few provocative members of Congress and online activists dominate the national conversation because they master the biggest social media platforms. That creates the impression that their views reflect a party, or a nation, when in reality they don't. And it shapes the party's image and agenda.

• Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), vice chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, told us: "Governing isn't about getting the most followers on X — it's about delivering actual results ... It's easy to scream and yell, and say no — it's much harder to figure out a way forward."

By the numbers:

• Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed had 1.6 million Instagram followers as of Sept. 13. Today: 7.6 million and rising. One clip of him pulled an estimated 50 million-plus views across X, Instagram and TikTok.
• Schumer, who has led Senate Democrats since 2017, sits at 466,000 Instagram followers. A man who hasn't been sworn in has roughly 15x the leader's audience.
• El-Sayed telegraphed this in July: "If you're Chuck Schumer, I'm pretty damn dangerous!" True.
• Jeffries has nearly 1 million followers on Instagram. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has 9.8 million on her personal account alone.

Yes, President Trump remade the GOP. But social media sucked in countless others to try to copy him, pushing rhetoric or ideas few politicians would've touched in the past.

• You see this in the rise of celebrity politicians who do little legislating but lots of instigating.
• You see this in the explosion of not just Instagram, X and YouTube followers by politicians, but also in the many starting their own shows — unthinkable a decade ago. Several see themselves as content producers: California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas host podcasts while doing pretty important day jobs for big states. Trump started his own social media platform, Truth Social.
• You see this in the daily media feeding frenzy when someone, somewhere goes viral because they lit up social media with a meme or menacing post.

The trap is springing before Democrats have even been sworn in:

• Several incoming senators have publicly said they won't support Schumer as leader, calling for new blood and more fight. James Talarico of Texas has sidestepped the question for months.
• Petitions to replace Schumer passed 100,000 signatures a day after launch. At Crooked Con, the post-election summit hosted in Washington last weekend by the parent company of "Pod Save America," the crowd booed and jeered his name all day.
• The pressure worked: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who's thinking about a 2028 presidential run, announced Thursday night on MS NOW he'll challenge Schumer for majority leader.

Doug Sosnik, a top official in Bill Clinton's White House and closely followed analyst of Democratic politics, told us: "You would never know it from the internet or press coverage, but the fact is there are only 130,000 members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)."

• "It has taken a while, but I think that Democrats have finally figured out that X/Twitter is not the real world," Sosnik added. "The best proof point of Democrats' 'getting this' was our success across the entire country."

What we're watching: The biggest siren song of the algorithm this next year will be impeaching Trump.

• Schumer and Jeffries have tried to set a disciplined path focused on affordability, not impeachment.
• Trump is prone to taking provocative actions that would juice talk of impeachment. A crowded presidential primary field will make the topic even more tempting — a massive distraction for the new Democratic majorities.

Reality check: Schumer only needs about 29 of his members to vote for him in a secret caucus vote. He'll likely win the room. But he's losing the feed, and the feed sets the narrative.

• Among the senators-elect who say they won't vote for Schumer are Adam Hamilton of Kansas and Troy Jackson of Maine. Running against your own leader is now a red state play, too.

Accountability creep: In December, Jeffries waved off a Hegseth impeachment push. On Sunday, he said he was a "hard yes." (House Republicans tanked the effort on Tuesday.) Bernie Sanders, the incoming HELP chair, says Democrats may go after RFK Jr. next, alongside aggressive investigations into Trump's staff and family.

• To be fair: Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky forced the vote, and Jeffries tied it to an Iran war he says has driven up prices. But removal would take two-thirds of the Senate, which Democrats don't have. It was a Week 1 fight they couldn't finish.

The bitter truth is there's little market for moderation or sanity or heads-down, excruciating policymaking. This wasn't always true: Pre-internet, politics wasn't minute-by-minute combat and most media played by similar rules and stuck to daily rhythms.

• So how can Schumer and Jeffries overcome this? You could argue no party is better positioned than Democrats to resist, or at least tame, the social media temptation.
• The scale of the win gives them cover: at least 54 Senate seats to 44 and 255 House seats to 168, with some races still uncalled. That's Democrats' largest House majority since 2008, with a lead of nearly 14 points in the total House vote.

Democrats clearly won because voters are tired of Trump's ideas, rhetoric and tactics. They clearly won because they fielded very moderate candidates in very red states: flips in Kansas (which hadn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century), Iowa, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and South Carolina. They clearly won because those candidates uniformly talked about the economy, the cost of living and things that matter to real people in real states.

• Only the most delusional Democrats think they won because of the mass appeal of their party. They know they have a golden opportunity to reposition and rehabilitate the Democratic brand.

Flashback: The last time Democrats held a majority this big, after 2008, they lost 63 House seats two years later. Big majorities have more members, more factions and more people chasing virality.

• Some top Democrats think the House and Senate should agree to focus on the one topic that unites them all, affordability, and allow room for debate but not distraction.

Schumer and Jeffries could state this emphatically every day.

• They could also make plain that they plan to hold Trump and others accountable, but leave that to oversight committees and make it secondary to bringing down prices.

The bottom line: Democrats won the election on prices. They'll lose the majority on posts.

• Axios' Alex Thompson contributed reporting.

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