Midterms trigger huge economic mood swing
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There was an unusually sharp partisan mood shift in the wake of the midterms, according to sentiment data from Morning Consult that was shared exclusively with Axios.
Why it matters: While big partisan swings in consumer sentiment are typical after a presidential election, they have been much smaller in midterm races.
- The latest numbers show just how tightly Americans' views on the economy are now intertwined with politics.
By the numbers: Democratic consumer sentiment rose 6.5 points in the five days after the election compared with the week before, while Republicans' mood fell 6.4 points.
How it works: Morning Consult's index considers survey responses from approximately 5,000 U.S. adults.
- They're asked five questions, including on people's personal finances and financial outlook, as well as their views on overall business conditions.
Zoom in: The biggest shifts in sentiment were in respondents' feelings about the future.
- Republicans' outlook across all five metrics fell after the election. Their confidence in business conditions over the next five years plummeted 12 percentage points.
- Democrats, meanwhile, had a jump of 9 percentage points in confidence about business conditions (although they remain negative about it) and an even bigger increase — 12 percentage points — in optimism that their own finances would improve over the next year.
- Of note: Both sides were more negative about their own finances compared with a year ago.
Zoom out: Overall sentiment, which includes Independents, barely moved — ticking up less than one point, per Morning Consult. The opposing partisan shifts appear to have canceled each other out.
Reality check: It's early days, and sentiment could shift quickly.
Between the lines: Consumer sentiment was once a telling measure of how people would actually spend their money: Good vibes meant more spending.
- Lately, it's looked more like a political measure.
- "Sentiment matters because it's vibes," says Eli Yokley, a U.S. politics analyst at Morning Consult.
