The big questions for Elon Musk's wireless dreams

Catch up quick: There's evidence that SpaceX is serious about building a terrestrial network — even if its ultimate strategy remains unclear.

• SpaceX has acquired spectrum from EchoStar and announced a second, $8 billion spectrum deal.
• Qualcomm says its multiyear agreement with SpaceX calls for deploying equipment at tens of thousands of cell sites, beginning in 2027.
• SpaceX has also reportedly discussed buying Boost Mobile or gaining access to its existing network arrangements, potentially offering a shortcut to serving customers nationwide.

• A wholesale agreement with an existing carrier would be a faster, cheaper and more profitable approach than building an independent network, according to New Street Research analyst David Barden.

The intrigue: Musk has proven naysayers wrong many times before on the way to disrupting established industries. But the nation's wireless giants have spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars building networks and attracting customers. SpaceX would have to catch up on both fronts.

Here are five big questions that remain unanswered:

1. How much will it cost? SpaceX will need to invest heavily in towers, radios, backhaul and other equipment to compete with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.

• Can it build a competitive nationwide network for less than the established carriers have spent?
• And how will it finance that investment while pursuing its other capital-intensive ambitions?

2. How long will it take? SpaceX says deployment will begin in 2027, but that's a long way from providing reliable nationwide cellular coverage.

• The company would need access to tens of thousands of cell sites to provide competitive coverage, particularly indoors and in dense urban areas.
• Satellites could help fill gaps, especially in rural areas, but they aren't a substitute for terrestrial capacity where large numbers of customers are using their phones.

3. Does SpaceX have enough spectrum? The spectrum acquired from EchoStar (and in a second deal) gives Musk a significant starting point, but it's unclear whether those frequencies alone are sufficient to support a major nationwide smartphone business.

• Additional spectrum could be costly and difficult to obtain.

4. Is this really just about smartphones? Musk's ambitions extend well beyond connecting people.

• A combined satellite and terrestrial network could eventually serve autonomous vehicles, delivery drones, robots and other connected devices.
• That could give SpaceX opportunities beyond the already competitive consumer wireless market.
• It could be that "the point is not to destroy what exists but rather to create a new business," New Street's Barden told Axios. "A new vision of connected intelligence."

5. Has the political calculus changed?

• With Democrats set to take control of the House and Senate, SpaceX could face more scrutiny over its spectrum holdings, acquisitions and dealings with federal regulators.
• A Democratic Congress wouldn't directly control decisions by the Federal Communications Commission or Justice Department, but it could hold hearings, demand documents and put political pressure on regulators.
• That could complicate Musk's path, particularly if SpaceX seeks approval for additional spectrum transactions or a major acquisition.

The bottom line: Musk has made clear he wants to become a major force in wireless communications. What's far less clear is whether he intends to build a new cellular giant from scratch — or use the prospect of doing so to strike a deal with the companies already dominating the market.