GOP's red wall comes crashing down
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Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico speaks after winning the Texas Senate race. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Senate Republicans' worst nightmare came true Tuesday night, as they watched red state after red state fall to a historic Democratic wave.
Why it matters: It's hard to remember now, but Republicans started off the 2026 cycle thinking they could expand their majority. They ended the night with what one source called a "huge f**king thumping" — losing or trailing in every toss-up on the map.
- At the start of the cycle, top operatives saw a red wall of incumbents in Trump-friendly states, an invincible Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and a vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, who provided a path to expanding a majority.
- By 9pm Tuesday night, top GOP sources were quietly accepting the reality of the return of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
- "Republicans are going to wake up in a different country tomorrow and we are going to have to start from square one to reinvent a party," one senior GOP Senate aide told Axios on Tuesday evening.
Between the lines: For the first time since 1972, Republicans lost a Senate seat in the home state of the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
- The defeat of Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) came despite Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) leading the NRSC.
- Republicans also lost in the home state of the next expected NRSC chair, Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
Zoom in: North Carolina and Georgia were expected to be the premiere races of the cycle not too long ago. Both were called for Democrats before 8:30pm EST.
That was just the beginning of the nightmare.
- In Texas, Elon Musk's more than $150 million infusion wasn't enough to save Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a nasty primary.
- In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted's (R-Ohio) campaign had a rocky start — and wasn't bailed out by President Trump's publicity campaign about his rear end.
- Alaska started looking shaky even before a second Dan Sullivan joined the ballot, and Iowa wasn't a given either.
- In Kansas, alarm bells started ringing over an unprepared Sen. Roger Marshall.
- In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham died, and before Republican leaders could blink, Trump crowned Graham's sister, Darline, who had no political experience.
- And in Maine, Republicans held out hope that Susan Collins could pull out another miracle. A hope that quickly faded as results began to roll in.
What we're hearing: "Absolutely brutal night," another senior GOP aide told us.
- "But also predictable. Signs were there for months. Biggest fear is that the party lacks the introspection, takes away wrong lessons, and doubles down on the policies and behavior that got us into this mess in first place."
- "Sometimes there are environmental challenges that even the strongest, best-resourced candidate can't overcome. We're seeing those challenges play out in real time tonight," said a third senior GOP aide.
- Yet another top operative conspicuously shared charts of Trump's dismal approval ratings.
The bottom line: Democrats won Senate seats on Tuesday night for the first time in Texas since 1988, in Kansas since 1932 and South Carolina since 1998.
