Nov 4, 2026 - Politics & Policy
The fatal assumption behind Republicans' redistricting strategy
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Republican mapmakers thought they were drawing at least a dozen comfortably red districts to protect their House majority.
Why it matters: They weren't red enough.
- In the seven states where Republicans redrew congressional boundaries, the GOP is on track to lose as many as eight seats — rather than gain the 15 it had hoped to pick up.
- With two exceptions — TX-32 and TN-09 — the pickups Republicans penciled in never materialized.
- Then there was a bloodbath in North Carolina.
Zoom in: At the heart of the GOP's miscalculation was a bet that the 2026 electorate would look like 2024's. Instead, voters behaved more like they had in 2020 — or even 2018.
- TX-34: Republicans made an already Trump-leaning district significantly redder, shifting it from Trump +4 to Trump +10. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez still won by nearly 16 percentage points.
- TX-23: Republicans made an already red district slightly less Republican, shifting it from Trump +16 to Trump +15. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won by eight points.
- TX-15: Rep. Monica De La Cruz's district remained essentially unchanged at Trump +18. She lost by 25 points.
Between the lines: The GOP's heaviest losses came in Ohio and North Carolina districts that Republican mapmakers barely touched.
- Rather than shore up districts Trump had won by double digits, Republicans concentrated on making two Democratic-held seats in Ohio and one in North Carolina redder, betting they would flip in a normal election year.
- But 2026 was anything but normal.
The bottom line: Perhaps the clearest example of a dummymander — when mapmakers spread their own voters too thin in pursuit of additional seats — came in Tennessee's 4th District.
- Republicans redrew TN-04 from Trump +44 to Trump +24, sacrificing much of its enormous GOP cushion.
- Democrat Victoria Broderick appears to have won by just 280 votes.
