Democrats will face a health care stress test
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Democrats will be able to take plenty of messaging votes on health care after their blowout wins Tuesday — but they'll face too many limits and internal disagreements to force all of the big policy changes they want.
Why it matters: They'll have a tough time repealing Medicaid cuts or restoring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies while President Trump is still in office, and their own divisions will hold them back on other issues.
- And Medicare for All? Last night gave the idea a big boost, but don't hold your breath.
Friction point: With control of both the Senate and House, Democrats will have powerful new leverage — but that leverage will also expose fault lines.
- Until now, progressives backing Medicare for All and centrists favoring more incremental changes were united in opposing Trump administration policies and blaming the president and the Republican Congress for the health affordability crisis.
- They'll try to use their power in the next Congress to promote sweeping changes with an eye toward the 2028 elections while also advancing more piecemeal policies, hoping to force some deals with Republicans.
- But they'll still face divisions over how to expand the federal government's role in the health system, or how to bend the steep health cost curve.
Driving the news: House Democrats have already signaled their opening moves with a 100-hour/100-day agenda agenda that prominently features health policies like reinstating the enhanced ACA tax credits that expired at the end of 2025.
- There will also be votes to roll back the steep cuts to federal Medicaid spending that Republicans included in their "One Big Beautiful Bill," per an 84-page memo from a health care working group to Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Other near-term agenda items include expanding Medicare drug price negotiations to private insurance, restoring withheld National Institutes of Health research funding and ending the use of AI in authorizing certain services in traditional Medicare.
Within the first year, the blueprint also envisions votes on Medicare for All, a government-run public insurance option and plans to let many Americans under 65 buy into Medicare.
- There will also be a heavy dose of oversight, with multiple committees intent on using their subpoena power to examine details of Trump's drug pricing deals and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s vaccine policies.
Reality check: Little of this would reverse the rising cost of care. And Democrats could spend a lot of energy next year playing whack-a-mole trying to target various expenses, like hospital spending, insurance premiums and the cost of insulin.
- Some policies, like site-neutral hospital payments, could generate billions in new savings to pay for coverage expansions, and even generate some bipartisan support at a time when more lawmakers are fed up with hospital consolidation and prices.
- There's also growing interest in how surprise billing disputes are driving up costs.
- But Democrats won't be the only ones looking for fixes. An aggressive Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services under administrator Mehmet Oz is sure to continue pursing fraud and waste in federal health programs and cutting federal spending on subsidies.
Between the lines: The biggest winner Tuesday may be the progressive wing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
- Strengthened by the Senate victory of left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the critical swing state of Michigan, the progressives can make a national case for Medicare for All — though the definition may be squishy.
- Expect many lawmakers to offer assurances that Americans can keep their health care if they want it, with a consensus likely forming around compromises like a Medicare buy-in.
Actual dealmaking will largely be driven by big legislative vehicles, like bills to keep the government funded and address the debt ceiling, that could be magnets for health policy changes.
- There also are certain must-do's, like a "doc fix" to shield physicians from scheduled Medicare reimbursement cuts and a reauthorization of Food and Drug Administration user fees to fund new product reviews.
- The latter could also be a way for Democrats and Republicans to respond to growing concerns about China challenging U.S. dominance in drug development.
What we're watching: Whether a "govern from the center, message from the left" strategy binds a caucus that isn't truly aligned on health care, or whether it quickly exposes rifts between establishment Democrats and the ascendant populist wing.
- "Expect a dual strategy of supporting affordability with policies on 'cost, coverage, and corporate greed' and accountability by framing congressional Republicans and the administration, especially RFK Jr., as dangerous to the health of Americans and an aggressive corporate investigation and hearings strategy," TD Cowen analyst Molly Turco wrote in a note.
