Qataris hold marathon talks in Tehran in bid for U.S.-Iran deal before midterms

Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and avoid an outbreak of war after the midterms, according to diplomatic sources.

• The discussions will continue in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday.

Why it matters: The U.S. is now just days away from a possible military operation that would inflict enormous damage on Iran and likely lead to retaliatory strikes against Israel and a host of Gulf countries.

Driving the news: A diplomatic source said Qatari mediators were in regular contact with the White House during Friday's daylong session.

• "There was positive progress. Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the U.S. and Iran," the source said.
• The Qataris are prodding the U.S. and Iran to agree on a set of reciprocal steps that would be implemented over a few days and get the parties back to direct talks on the Iranian nuclear program and other issues.

• A U.S. official said two competing demands have stymied the talks so far: the Trump administration's insistence that Iran make nuclear concessions as part of resuming talks, and Iran's stipulation that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow it to sell oil.
• The Qataris are trying to convince Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure that the U.S. would respond to with some sanctions relief.

The intrigue: Inside Trump's inner circle, there are different opinions on what he should do.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are highly skeptical that any nuclear agreement can be reached with the current Iranian regime. They think Trump's legacy should be to weaken the regime even more, including with further strikes, a U.S. official said.
• The person said that while Vice President Vance and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to resume negotiations, Trump is skeptical Iran will ever agree to a deal he finds acceptable.
• "There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. ... We have time, frankly. It's a war, but it is not a typical war," Trump told reporters on Friday.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading an economic pressure campaign dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," is one of Trump's closest aides urging him to let the initiative play out rather than rush back into combat.

Zoom out: Countries in the region like Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been urging Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the midterms, a regional source said.

• One U.S. official said Trump might be more inclined to order a major military operation if Republicans lose badly in the midterms.
• "If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised he will do something bold. That's what everyone are telling the Iranians. Their best shot to get a deal is right now," the official said.
• A White House official said the election results won't be a factor in Trump's decision-making about Iran.
• The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey urged Trump in recent days to allow more time for diplomacy.
• At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to launch a joint operation against Iran immediately after the election.

The big picture: Renewed war could lead to massive destruction not only in Iran but in Gulf countries, exacerbating the global energy crisis.

• Iran has vowed to respond to any U.S. strikes on its energy infrastructure by attacking oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Any U.S. attack on Iran would be conducted jointly with Israel. Iran would likely retaliate with missile strikes, while Hezbollah could also wage attacks on Israel.