Israel faces weeks of political wrangling after deadlocked election
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to speak to the media after voting at a polling station in Jerusalem on Tuesday. Photo: Jewel Samad/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
TEL AVIV, Israel — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral coalition opened a sizable lead over Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc with 85 percent of the vote counted.
- But while Netanyahu outperformed exit polls, which had Eisenkot's opposition coalition ahead, neither bloc will clear a 61-seat majority. That sets the stage for weeks of wrangling over the country's next government.
Why it matters: Netanyahu will emerge from the election down but not out. His bloc is on pace to secure 53 seats — 11 fewer than he currently commands. But Eisenkot's bloc trails with 48 seats, leaving both men without a clear mandate to lead a government.
- While Eisenkot could theoretically swear in a government with the support of Arab parties — which are on track to secure a record-breaking 19 seats — such a scenario is highly unlikely.
The intrigue: The actual vote count significantly boosted Netanyahu's standing compared to initial exit polls, which showed Eisenkot's bloc ahead.
- President Trump told Axios in a brief interview Wednesday that at first he received "horror reports" about Netanyahu's prospects. But "he's in pretty good shape now," Trump said.
- "I heard my endorsement made a big difference for Bibi," he added.
- Asked whether he is going to get involved in an effort to form a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump said he hadn't thought about it.
- "I will take a look," he said.
State of play: There are 500,000 votes left to be counted, from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners and others who voted outside their designated area.
- These votes could slightly shift the blocs' seat totals or the allotment of seats within each bloc. But they are unlikely to change the overall balance of power.
Driving the news: Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin consulting next week with the different parties before issuing a mandate to either Netanyahu or Eisenkot to form a government.
- "We must do everything possible, especially after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So I expect everyone who comes here to arrive with an open mind," Herzog said on Wednesday.
- If neither side can assemble a majority, a new round of elections would be scheduled as early as April.
Between the lines: Herzog could try to persuade Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a unity government, but Netanyahu doesn't seem interested in that. On Tuesday night, he called for a "strong right-wing government."
- Netanyahu will likely try to convince one of the opposition leaders to cross over to him. All of them, however, committed publicly before the election not to do that.
- Under another scenario, Eisenkot could try to form a minority government with outside support from the Arab parties. But such a government could collapse quickly and lead to a Netanyahu victory in the next elections.
- On the other hand, allowing Netanyahu to remain on as a caretaker prime minister until the next elections could also lead to defeat for the opposition bloc in the next elections. It would give Netanyahu's bloc more time to organize and ease its divisions.
- For Netanyahu, staying as caretaker prime minister until new elections are held could be the best option. It would leave him with almost full powers to direct Israel's national security and foreign policy and move forward with renewed war against Iran.
What to watch: The opposition will likely take over key positions in the Knesset after the new parliament is sworn in next week.
- That would allow Eisenkot and his partners to install a Knesset speaker, control the legislative agenda and pass laws they agree on — such as forming a national commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the October 7 attacks.
