Trump begins Florida season with Mar-a-Lago stays, rally on Oct. 23

Polls show Rep. Byron Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody with marginal leads over their Democratic opponents in the gubernatorial and Senate races.

• The Fort Myers rally is in the heart of Donalds' Southwest Florida district, among the state's solid Republican strongholds.

State of play: Registered Florida Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by more than 1.5 million.

• So far, though, Democrats have cast more vote-by-mail ballots than Republicans, according to the state's Division of Elections.

Republicans used to dominate mail voting in Florida. But that began to change after Trump started demonizing the method in 2020. So now Republicans rely more on early in-person voting, which begins Monday in big Florida counties.

• By the Friday rally in Fort Myers, the strength of Republican turnout, or lack thereof, will be much clearer with early voting.
• "Next week is crunch time," said a top Florida Republican consultant. "It's still Florida, and we still have more voters. But the environment isn't great and, sure, no one turns out our base more than the president. I hope it works."

Coming attractions: On Friday, Trump officially kicks off his Florida season by overnighting at his Mar-a-Lago club after an afternoon rally in Dalton, Ga.

• On Saturday, he rallies at Northern Kentucky University's arena in Highland Heights, Ky., then is back in Palm Beach for a MAGA Inc. Candlelight Dinner.
• Sunday, he'll return to the White House.
• Monday, he rallies in Wichita, Kan.
• Tuesday, he rallies in Greenville, S.C.
• Wednesday, he rallies in Clemson, S.C.
• Thursday, he rallies in Sioux City, Iowa.
• Next Friday, he returns to Florida for the rally with Donalds and Moody.