Medicare for All vs. moderate Democrats
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Public support for Medicare for All has never been higher. But even if Democrats perform extraordinarily well in the midterm elections, they'll take control of Congress with a slate of new members who aren't fans of a single-payer health system.
Why it matters: Voters may be increasingly interested in giving Medicare for All a try, but it's still a very long way from becoming reality.
The big picture: Supporters of Medicare for All now outnumber opponents by nearly 2-to-1, with 43% of Americans in support and another 32% saying they aren't sure, fresh Axios-Ipsos polling found.
- KFF also recently found that 66% of respondents favored a Medicare for All plan, compared with 34% who opposed.
- But while Democrats of all stripes have made clear that health care affordability is one of their top priorities, the party is no closer to coalescing around Medicare for All as the vehicle for lowering costs.
- "As the poll itself has repeatedly highlighted, there's the aspirational perception of Medicare for All, and then there is the policy, politics and process of getting it done," said Democratic consultant Chris Jennings. "And those are two separate issues."
Where it stands: The sheer volume of midterm races that appear to be breaking Democrats' way makes it entirely plausible that the party takes full control of Congress next year.
- Races deep in Trump country have become competitive, with polling showing Democrats ahead of their Republican rivals or at least within the polling margin of error.
- But almost all the Democrats turning red seats competitive sit in the more moderate wing of the party, and only a handful in highly watched races have said they support Medicare for All.
- "Medicare for All is having a moment, with prominent progressive candidates running on it," said KFF executive vice president Larry Levitt. But between moderate Democrats and President Trump remaining in office, "Medicare for All is going nowhere at the moment, at least for the next two years."
By the numbers: In a sample of 127 Democratic primary candidates running for competitive House or Senate seats, the Brookings Institution found that only a third of those candidates supported Medicare for All, single payer or universal health care.
- Of those, only seven — or 17% — won their primary.
- Nearly 60% of the Democratic candidates studied supported expanding, reforming and protecting the Affordable Care Act and/or Medicare.
- Among those, 35 ultimately won their primary — out of 43 total Dem winners.
The other side: The biggest exceptions to the moderates-in-competitive-races trend are Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine.
- Both Senate candidates have vocally supported Medicare for All and will undoubtedly become prominent champions for it if they win their respective races.
Zoom out: Even if Medicare for All is DOA in the next Congress, there's clear support both within the party and among voters for expanding the federal government's role in health care.
- Democrats will likely spend the next two years figuring out which version of a stronger role for the government they'd have the votes to pass if they also win the presidency in 2028.
- And the ultimate presidential nominee will have enormous sway over that conversation.
- "The current Medicare for All discussion is all a prelude for the 2028 presidential campaign," Levitt said. "If a progressive candidate runs for president and gathers steam, Medicare for All could emerge as a dominant issue in the Democratic presidential primaries."
The bottom line: Voters are tired of the current health care system's ever-increasing costs. Expect to hear a lot from Democrats over the next couple of years about how they want to bring those costs down — and Medicare for All will absolutely be in the mix.
