Unexpected House battles pop up deep in Trump country

• That includes incumbents like Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom were seen as remotely vulnerable coming into the second Trump term.
• Most of these seats haven't elected a Democrat in years or even decades and are only truly in play if the party is winning nationally by double digits. Even then, some are a stretch.
• But candidates in Trump country say frustration with rising prices, corruption, the war in Iran and political incumbency in general have led to a sea change that could precipitate some shock results on Nov. 3.

State of play: Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) is running scathing attack ads against Democratic opponent Callie Barr, labeling her "Crooked Callie" and tying her to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Abdul El-Sayed.

• That's a stark change from 2024, when Bergman defeated Barr by 21 percentage points. His ads that cycle made at most a passing reference to Barr, according to AdImpact.

• Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.) won by 15 points in 2024, a sleepy general election with minimal spending or ads. He too is running attack ads amid a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello.

What we're hearing: Democrats say they are astounded by the level of anti-establishment frustration in their districts. "We're in a real race. It's unreal," Barr said in an interview, telling Axios voters regularly come to her campaign offices "just to vent their frustration" with the incumbent.

• "I ran in '24, and I can see, in real time, the shift," she said. "I mean, look at the commercial Jack Bergman ran about me. There's a track behind it that's whispering, 'lies.'"
• Richard Ojeda, who is running against National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), told Axios his district is "ripe for the picking" because voters are "absolutely tired, they're done with this, they know they deserve better."
• "People here are equally disgusted with everybody involved in politics ... There's an enormous appetite for change," said Don Coover, the Democrat challenging Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Kan.).

Zoom in: Perriello, asked to compare the 2026 election cycle with the 2008 Democratic wave in which he was elected to his first stint in Congress, said Republican presidential nominee John McCain "was a very serious, credible Republican."

• Then-Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama "was driving a wave that turned Virginia blue, but it wasn't like the bottom was dropping out on the Republican side," he told Axios.
• "This election has the bottom dropping out on the Republican side," he said.

What they're saying: "The bottom is falling out so fast from House Republicans, they are scrambling to shore up deep red districts that the MAGA clowns cosplaying as operatives mocked us for targeting over a year ago," said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

• Shelton added, "Who's laughing now?"
• CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC — House Democrats' main super PAC — told Axios: "Coming into the cycle, our strategy was to recruit stellar candidates in order to contest races deep into Trump territory — and it's paying off."
• Warnke pointed to Democratic efforts in Texas' newly redrawn 15th District, which Trump carried by 18 points in 2024, and North Carolina's 11th District, which he noted hasn't been won by a Democrat since 2006.

Yes, but: Despite the DCCC adding many of these races to its aspirational "Districts in Play" list, neither it nor House Majority PAC has committed any money.

• In some cases, smaller outside spenders are filling the gap: Progressive group Science Victory Fund plans to spend $200,000 on ads and phone banking in 15 strongly Republican districts, a spokesperson told Axios.
• That includes going after Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), as well as open GOP seats in Kentucky, Nevada and South Carolina that Trump won by double digits.
• In other races, the candidates are doing the heavy lifting: Eileen Laubacher, the Democrat running against Boebert, raised over $10 million as of June 30 compared with the Republican incumbent's $1 million.

The other side: "Democrats are doing an awful lot of celebrating before a single vote is counted, confusing a laughable target list with an election result. ... We have the stronger candidates and winning messages," NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella told Axios in a statement.