NFL blasts prediction markets over "integrity" concerns in Supreme Court brief
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The NFL wants sports prediction markets to be regulated at the state level, putting the league opposite Kalshi, Polymarket and the Trump administration.
Why it matters: As the most powerful force in American sports, the NFL's opposition could pose a significant threat to the prediction market companies' fight to offer sports contracts on their own terms.
Driving the news: The NFL urged the U.S. Supreme Court to take up a legal fight between New Jersey gambling regulators and Kalshi, filing an amicus brief supporting the state's request for review of the case.
- In its brief, the league argues that federal regulation of sports-related "event contracts" has been insufficient, and that some those offered on prediction markets "present significant and immediate threats to the integrity of sporting events and to market participants."
Zoom in: The NFL assailed prediction market players and their regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for rejecting its call to establish a minimum trading age of 21.
- It also criticized the companies for allowing wagers on events the NFL considers particularly vulnerable to manipulation or otherwise objectionable, including missed field goals, player injuries, officiating decisions and individual plays.
- The NFL argued that the legal fight would be largely unnecessary if federal regulators and prediction market companies adopted safeguards similar to those already in place in many states. "But that is not what has happened," the league wrote.
The other side: A spokesperson for Coalition for Prediction Markets said its members are "committed to fair, transparent, and well-regulated markets" and that the CFTC "is actively policing these markets and advancing rulemaking to address concerns raised by sports leagues."
- Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company is committed to protecting game integrity, noting its partnerships with the MLB and NHL.
- A Polymarket spokesperson said the company shares the NFL's commitment to preserving game integrity, and is working with federal regulators and other sports leagues to strengthen market surveillance and establish consistent nationwide standards, rather than "a fragmented patchwork of state laws."
State of play: The gambling industry has been roiled by the nationwide spread of prediction markets, which offer what they call "event contract" trading but which critics call the equivalent of betting.
- The CFTC currently has only one member, Trump-appointed chair Mike Selig, who has argued that prediction markets fall under the the commission's regulatory purview.
- He told Axios earlier this year that the CFTC will defend its regulatory turf all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary.
The latest: The CFTC believes the NFL is attempting to regulate the regulator, according to source familiar with its deliberations.
- A CFTC spokesperson said the commission has engaged with the league on its rulemaking agenda and policy priorities, but called it "unfortunate" that the league declined to sign an MOU that would have allowed the two sides to better cooperate and share information.
The commission in June released a 267-page notice of proposed rulemaking that would formalize standards on sports event contracts.
- That would include "final scores, point differentials, win-loss results, tournament advancement, individual or team statistical performance or season long performance metrics," according to the notice.
- It would disallow trades on a "specific play called for or executed by a specific player or team," such as a single pitch in baseball, a single shot in hockey or a single foul in basketball.
That hasn't assuaged the NFL, which said in its brief that the commission's proposed amendments "fall significantly short of protecting the integrity of sports events and the fans who participate in these markets."
- The league said the CFTC and prediction market companies have refused its request to adopt a list of prohibited wagers it's already negotiated with traditional sportsbooks.
What they're saying: The American Gaming Association, which represents casino interests, hailed the NFL's filing.
- "We agree with how the NFL is tackling this issue: so-called 'prediction markets' are offering sports betting and that should be regulated at the state and tribal level," AGA CEO Bill Miller said in a statement.
What's next: Kalshi has until Nov. 9 to respond to New Jersey's petition. The Supreme Court will then decide whether to hear the case, potentially setting up a ruling on whether sports prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws or federal financial regulations.
Editor's note: This story was updated with a statement from the CFTC.
