Wall Street on track for record profits
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Wall Street profits are blowing past expectations this year, the New York State Comptroller's office finds in a new report.
Why it matters: Profits are on track for an all-time record, a sign of how the AI boom is fueling dealmaking and how volatile markets are helping trading.
By the numbers: In the first half of this year, Wall Street firms raked in $45.9 billion — that's 51.3% more than the same period last year, and already more than the $45.3 billion forecast for the entirety of 2026.
- If growth continues apace, annual profits could exceed $90 billion.
Zoom out: That's far more than 2025's record $65.1 billion and rivals the 2009 record even after accounting for inflation, the report says.
Stunning stat: The fees that firms earn from underwriting — helping companies sell new stocks and bonds — rose 68% in the first half of the year, compared with the first half of 2025.
Zoom in: That tracks with a 76.5% increase in global equity issuance, a large chunk from the SpaceX initial public offering.
- Plus, there was also an 11.3% increase in debt issuance, with the AI hyperscalers among the biggest borrowers.
Yes, but: It's anyone's guess as to whether the second half of the year looks like the first.
- There are plenty of market headwinds blowing: the Iran war, higher inflation and interest rates, the potential for the AI bubble to burst among them.
The intrigue: Wall Street appears to be thriving despite fears over the city's democratic socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
The big picture: The securities industry makes up a big and growing share of the city and state's tax revenues, but local business and politics aren't significant profit engines.
- Those instead are driven by national and global markets — it's been a huge year for stocks, the SpaceX IPO was the biggest ever, M&A hit a record and war-driven volatility juiced trading.
What to watch: The big Wall Street banks are set to release third-quarter earnings numbers next week — that's the first big test of whether the pace is holding up.
