Russia's plague mystery: What we know about the suspected outbreak
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Workers at Russia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and Far East in an undated photo. Photo: Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and Far East/AP
The White House is monitoring a suspected outbreak of pneumonic plague in Russia, raising immediate concerns for scientists, researchers and health officials worldwide.
Why it matters: Pneumonic plague is the most dangerous form of plague and can spread between people through respiratory droplets. Without treatment, it is nearly always fatal, but antibiotics can be highly effective when started quickly.
- "Pneumonic plague is the most serious form of the disease," according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Driving the news: A Russian lab worker reportedly died after developing severe pneumonia, with multiple reports suggesting she may have been exposed to plague bacteria at work.
- The White House and State Department are monitoring the suspected outbreak.
- "CDC is monitoring the situation closely with the State Department and our other interagency partners," a spokesperson from the Department of Health and Human Services tells Axios. "The safety and security of U.S. citizens is our highest priority."
Here's what we know and don't know so far.
What we know
Catch up quick: Russian media reports said Darya Shipilova broke a test tube believed to contain plague bacteria.
- She was sent to a hospital on Sept. 29 with symptoms of severe pneumonia. She died overnight from Oct. 1 to Oct. 2, per reports.
- The incident reportedly occurred at the Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia.
- There has been no confirmed cause of Shipilova's death, or information about whether it had to do with her work at the institute.
State of play: Russian authorities instituted quarantines at nearby medical facilities and placed about 200 people who may have had contact with Shipilova under medical observation.
- Five hospitals, including one for children and another for maternity, remain under quarantine over the incident.
Russia's public health agency said that Shipilova had "pneumonia of unknown etiology," with further testing finding no microorganisms linked to her work.
- The health agency said the epidemiological situation in the region remains stable.
- No infectious diseases or sicknesses have been reported among those under quarantine since the investigation began.
U.S. response to Russian plague mystery
Threat level: On Sunday, Axios scooped that the White House had been monitoring the situation and would assess all of its options on the suspected plague outbreak. Europe is "very closely" monitoring the suspected outbreak.
- The Department of State told Radio Free Europe it is calling on Russia to share more information.
- The department also said the plague is treatable with commonly available antibiotics, if treated early.
Reality check: Even if Shipilova had pneumonic plague, there is no evidence so far of person-to-person spread.
- Pneumonic plague generally spreads through close contact with respiratory droplets from someone who is sick, and the incubation period is typically only 1-3 days, per the CDC.
- The plague typically spreads to humans through direct contact with infected animals or through bites of infected fleas that live on rodents.
What they're saying: The incident has sparked headlines and panic on social media among Americans, with some comparing it to the COVID-19 outbreak.
- Many have looked to Annie Jacobsen, whose book "Biological War: A Scenario" outlines a similar series of events.
What we don't know
There are several unknowns right now, including:
- Was there really a lab accident, and was anyone else infected?
- Why do official Russian statements conflict with local reports?
- Was the work ordinary plague research or something more sensitive?
Despite reports about Shipilova and the incident, it's unclear whether this is a real case of pneumonic plague, as many details come from Russian media.
- Irkutsk Gov. Igor Kobzev wrote on Telegram that a resident "may have contracted a particularly dangerous infection," but did not specifically name pneumonic plague.
- Russian reports suggest there have been no cases of the plague, stressing that the epidemiological situation is stable.
Where Shipilova may have been infected also remains a question.
- One Russian media report suggested Shipilova recently returned from Buryatia, where plague concerns existed near the Mongolian border.
- Buryatia Gov. Alexey Tsydenov disputed this, saying she never visited the region and there were no plague outbreaks there.
- Tsydenov also first claimed Shipilova died of the plague, before editing his statement to say she "possibly died of the plague."
It's also unclear what Shipilova's institute was studying and whether the reported broken test tube existed at all.
- Russian authorities say no accident involving dangerous pathogens occurred.
Context: Yersinia pestis, the bacteria that causes the plague, has a long history as a potential biological weapon, adding to scrutiny around the incident.
- The Soviet Union developed antibiotic-resistant Yersinia pestis for biological warfare, per a CDC report from 2021.
What's next: Health experts and government officials want to see more information from Russia, especially the diagnosis of Shipilova and anyone else potentially infected.
