House Democrats want to win big. It could cost them.
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House Democratic caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (left), Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Minority Whip Katherine Clark at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 17. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
Democrats' dream election scenario risks becoming a nightmare as their candidates in Republican-leaning districts strain to assert their independence from party leadership.
Why it matters: Add them to the sizable cohort of outspoken leftists promising to be a thorn in the side of House Democratic leaders, and you get all the ingredients for an unruly majority.
- "When I see things that I don't think are right, whether they're within my own party or within another party, I'm going to call it out," Jake Johnson, a Democratic House candidate in Minnesota, told Axios in an interview.
- Montana Democrat Sam Forstag, when asked about the approach he would take on Capitol Hill, said showing a willingness to work across the aisle and "buck your own party" have "got to be a part of it."
- "There is a tremendous amount of frustration with the D.C. political establishment, and ... a lot of cynicism that things aren't going to change," said Colorado candidate Eileen Laubacher.
State of play: Democrats got an early taste last month when Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) repeatedly broke with party leadership on key procedural votes.
- The defections from a pair of independent-minded frontliners unlocked a new fear for House Democrats: That safe-seat progressives aren't the only rebellious freshmen they will have to worry about next year.
- It's a salient concern as Democrats put more Republican-leaning seats on their radar in anticipation of a "blue wave" on Election Day.
- There has been a huge spike in ads from Democrats in those districts repudiating their own party or the two-party system as a whole, Axios reported last week.
What they're saying: "I will stand up to Republicans, I will also stand up to Democrats. I talk a lot about this," said Michigan swing-district candidate Christina Hines.
- Johnson said it's "no wonder people have historically low levels of confidence in Congress" because they "see a bunch of people put on red shirts and blue shirts ... and it's just not working."
- Forstag pointed to housing as an issue where he has broken with Democrats in his state, telling Axios: "When it comes to zoning reform, you know who I've seen be the biggest impediment to progress? Oftentimes, Democrats."
- "You bet your ass I'm going to work with Republicans," he said.
Between the lines: This swing-district independent streak is bound to come in conflict with the rebellions that safe-seat insurgents are planning.
- Left-leaning Democratic lawmakers and candidates have told Axios they want votes on core policy issues such as Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and cutting off aid to Israel.
- The kind of candidate that gets elected to a seat President Trump carried by double digits in 2024 is not going to want to take those votes — in fact, they may be more likely to fund ICE and Israel.
Yes, but: Some of these red-seat candidates are quite openly progressive and partisan.
- The common denominator: They're hearing voters' frustration about party leadership and, if elected, they would arrive on Capitol Hill with a mandate to shake up the system and remain independent.
- Missouri candidate Fred Wellman, who told Axios he is "very Democrat" and "fairly progressive," said he was "disappointed" that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with Jared Kushner in August.
- Wellman said he will "make a decision when I get there" about whether to vote for Jeffries as speaker and doesn't "intend to be a rubber stamp."
Zoom in: Democratic operatives told Axios that this leadership-skeptic attitude extends, in some cases, to candidates not wanting party leaders to come campaign for them.
- "There's very little appetite for anyone in Democratic leadership," said one consultant of the battleground-district House campaigns they are working with.
- Matt Herdman, an adviser to Maine Democrat Matt Dunlap, offered Axios a curt response when asked if they would welcome Jeffries to their district: "They haven't offered and we haven't asked."
The bottom line: None of this rebelliousness has thus far turned off the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which Jeffries and his leadership allies control.
- The House Democratic campaign arm has been spending heavily to support Gluesenkamp Perez even after some of her colleagues called for her to be cut off.
- Fittingly, Gluesenkamp Perez declared in a coordinated ad with the DCCC released Tuesday: "I don't answer to any political party or any president."
