Why the hot IPO market appears to be cooling
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Oura's decision to put off a planned $2 billion initial public offering may be a sign of cooling in this year's piping-hot American IPO market.
Why it matters: Does it reflect an ebbing in some of the market's animal spirits, in the face of the 10-year Treasury yield at ~5.25%?
- That seems to be the takeaway from Axios' Dan Primack, who writes that "Oura was basically unable to get the price it wanted, in part due to market turmoil tied to the bond yield and oil price volatility, per a source familiar with the situation."
Zoom out: More broadly, the IPO slowdown could reflect a sort of calm ahead of what's expected to be a giant offering from Anthropic before year-end.
- It would be rational for CEOs to want to avoid a potentially disastrous turn of bad luck if they had to sell shares into the market at a time when the AI titan was sucking up market and investor attention — not to mention their money.
The latest: Still, in terms of dollars raised in the market, it has been a great year for IPOs.
- Year-to-date, offerings of new shares have pulled in roughly $145 billion in proceeds, up nearly 400% from last year.
- But that's largely attributable to supersized offerings from tech giants like Elon Musk's SpaceX, which raised a record of nearly $86 billion in its June offering.
- South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix also contributed, with a $26.5 billion offering of U.S. depositary shares in July.
Zoom in: Performance of these newly minted shares has been solid.
- The Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund, which tracks a market-weighted basket of recent U.S.-listed IPOs, is up roughly 16% in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's roughly 12% gain.
Between the lines: Though lately momentum-driven stocks — which IPOs are often related to — have hit headwinds from the rise in interest rates.
- But the market whale that is Anthropic, hovering somewhere beyond the horizon, is also likely prompting some investors who take fliers on new issues to keep their powder dry.
The bottom line: The Anthropic IPO — its prospectus is reportedly circulating — is expected to make its debut on the Nasdaq in November.
- It may be the largest ever, with its bankers targeting a valuation of over $2 trillion and proceeds of $100 billion or more, according to various reports.
