"Brace for losing everything": Farm crisis fears grip GOP in Iowa
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Iowa Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge.
Why it matters: Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump's policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.
- "In Iowa, we should brace for losing everything, definitely the governor's race and maybe the Senate race and who knows what else," said one top GOP campaign consultant working in Iowa and other states.
Driving the news: As his political operation watches Iowa in alarm, Trump on Monday held a White House press conference to announce plans for a massive steel plant in the state that would be the nation's largest.
- Iowa politicos note that the $15 billion plant wouldn't come online until 2030, too late to provide tangible relief to people who are hurting now.
Zoom in: Iowa farming has been difficult for years because of rising costs, consolidation trends and foreign competition. But farmers say two recent stressors are directly tied to Trump:
- Tariffs increased costs of fertilizer, pesticides and farm equipment, and caused market instability. The related trade wars especially hurt U.S. relations with Canada, which buys about 30% of Iowa's exports.
- The war in Iran increased the cost of diesel by nearly 80% in Iowa, forcing farmers to bleed money, consider taking loans just to survive and limit machine use to critical levels.
The big picture: "Iowa is on the front end of a farm crisis. It's ground zero," the consultant said. "But this is in the corn belt and it's showing signs of spreading to Kansas and Nebraska, even Missouri."
- Polls show tighter-than-expected races in the Kansas Senate race and Nebraska's gubernatorial campaign.
- Trump won Iowa by more than 13 percentage points in 2024. But in the current U.S. Senate race, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is essentially tied in polling averages with Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.
- In Iowa's race for governor, state Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, leads Republican nominee Zach Lahn by larger margins.
Between the lines: Mark Mueller, a Republican voter and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said he didn't think the GOP problem is "dire" because the polls could be off.
- "People are just embarrassed to tell pollsters they voted for Trump," said Mueller, noting that "Hinson and Lanh haven't had the president out here, and Hinson is touting her independence" from Trump now that she's calling for the end of the Iran war, which she once supported.
- Hinson, though, was with Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, soaking up praise from the president.
Mueller said his farm in Waverly, Iowa, is "scraping by," but that "I can easily see more farmers going bankrupt or retiring. This hurts the young guys. They have a harder time getting in. This hurts the small guys."
- Interest rates are rising — an extra hit to farmers like him who finance much of their operation by taking out loans they repay after crop sales.
- "Some guys are saying they can't even leave the family farm to their son," he said. "It's not going to be like the crisis in the '80s. But it's getting bad."
The intrigue: Farm country is reliably Republican for Iowa's GOP, but few expect those voters to suddenly side with Democrats.
- The worry for Republicans — and the hope for Democrats — is that many of these GOP voters just stay home on Election Day.
- Julius Shaaf, a Democrat who's a retired Iowa corn and soybean farmer in Freemont County, said he's skeptical that many well-established Iowa farmers will stop voting for Republicans. But younger farmers without a safety net are having a harder time with the volatility, he said.
- "It's just absolutely wiping them out," Schaaf said. "It's almost impossible for them to carry on like this."
Meanwhile, Hinson supporters are concerned about getting dragged down by Lahn, who has been dogged by critical coverage in liberal media outlets questioning his residency in Iowa and his farming background.
- "Ashley can survive. I wouldn't bet on Lahn," said one top Iowa Republican.
What they're saying: Hinson's campaign touted her ties to agriculture and her endorsement from farmers' groups, predicting she would win.
- Lahn's campaign says voter registration trends and Iowa's conservative culture will carry the day.
- "Anytime you have three frontline House seats, a frontline Senate seat and an open gubernatorial race in a midterm, you're going to have to go out and fight for it," said Lahn's top adviser, Luke Thompson.
- "It is going to be hard," he said. "But pant-shitting is silly."
