3 big questions as GOP nears moment of truth
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With midterms 39 days away and the outlook for President Trump's party looking increasingly bleak, top Republicans say they're focused on three big questions for the final stretch:
- Are their attack ads working? Republicans expect a wave of private polling in early October to reveal whether their massive financial advantage is cutting into Democrats' leads.
- GOP groups had spent more than $450 million through Sept. 23, more than twice what Democrats had spent, according to campaign finance expert Rob Pyers.
But Republican strategists say they aren't sure yet whether the barrage is working amid voter anger over high prices, data centers and Trump's war in Iran.
- Trump's political operation didn't begin pouring its $416 million war chest into attack ads until around Labor Day, and Republicans argue the ads need time to sink in.
- Strategists are particularly watching the Texas Senate race, where national GOP groups have sunk more than $100 million into helping Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. Several polls have shown Paxton — whom GOP leaders have long viewed as a problematic nominee — trailing Talarico.
"September tests whether your messaging moves the needle in races — and early October is when the map locks in," a Republican strategist told Axios.
2. Who gets cut loose? Republicans concede they'll have to make painful spending decisions by early October.
- That could complicate things for GOP Senate contenders Mike Collins in Georgia and Michael Whatley in North Carolina, who have consistently trailed Democrats Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper despite millions in Republicans' spending.
If Collins and Whatley's numbers don't improve, Republicans say they could redirect money to Michigan and New Hampshire, where the party is playing offense.
- Republicans also may have to spend more in traditionally red states such as Kansas, where polls show GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in a tight race against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
- Hamilton would be the first Kansas Democrat to win a Senate seat since 1932. The race is tight enough to have drawn Vice President Vance to the state for a recent visit to try to give Marshall a boost.
Trump's political operation, meanwhile, has begun spending to defend a South Carolina House district that Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.
3. What does Trump do? The president and his political team remain one of the midterms' biggest question marks.
- Trump's team said early this year that he'd campaign weekly for GOP candidates. That didn't happen. Trump now says he'll spend the final 30 days campaigning for candidates in 35 key Senate and House races.
- By early October, Republican strategists expect to see whether he'll follow through — and, if he does, where he goes.
Where Trump doesn't go could be just as telling. Some Republicans in competitive races are keeping their distance from the unpopular administration.
- When Vance visited Iowa last week, GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson didn't appear, citing previously scheduled events.
- Then there's the question of how much Trump's willing to spend. Strategists say that should become clear in early October.
