Exclusive: Scalise puts GOP high-water mark at 225 House seats
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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise speaks at the Republicans' midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9. Photo: Alex Wong / Getty Images
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is staring at a scary political environment for Republicans and claiming to see something very different: a path to 225 seats.
Why it matters: Republican leaders insist they can retain the majority, but only if they drive their voters to the polls by manufacturing the kind of voter enthusiasm Democrats are generating organically.
- "If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise told Axios in an interview Thursday.
- "We could get to 225. It would be a good night for us if we did, but it's possible," he said.
- "235 is not," he said. "You're literally doing coin tosses in a couple of seats."
Between the lines: Asked if he saw any signs of a blue wave forming or the map expanding, Scalise said: "Not right now. No."
Reality check: Republicans know that history — and many of the indicators heading into November — is working against them.
- "I know what history says, you know, but history's not on the ballot," Scalise said.
- Still, Democrats are turning out in primaries — and special elections — as if they're getting free gas cards for showing up.
Democrats lead by nearly nine percentage points on the generic ballot.
- President Trump's approval rating is below 40%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
- And Trump is underwater by a whopping 61 percentage points on inflation in a recent poll, an apparent record.
Zoom in: Republicans are examining the map with a jeweler's loupe and insist the picture isn't as bleak in the pivotal battleground seats.
- "We're not looking at national polls; we go district by district," Scalise said.
- That means trench warfare in 35 seats, where Republicans say they have proven winners, plenty of money and new rules to spend it.
- "We've got 20 [seats] on our side that we're fighting to hold on to that are real competitive, and 15 [seats] that we have a real chance to flip," he said. "These are knock-down, drag-out fights."
What we're hearing: The White House has long thought of the midterms as a "hate election." Scalise uses the more genteel term "contrast election."
- But before Republicans can dream about growing their majority, they need to fix their enthusiasm problem — and match the Democratic energy showing up in many of the preelection indicators.
The GOP's midterm convention in Dallas last week was the first step.
- "If we are able to capitalize on that kind of enthusiasm and carry that momentum into November, then we'll have the same turnout as the other side, and we'll hold the majority," Scalise said.
- Now comes the road show: Congressional leaders — and the president — are hitting the campaign trail.
- In the next two weeks, Scalise will travel to 11 states to campaign for 16 Republicans — incumbents and challengers.
The bottom line: The 225-seat scenario is Scalise's high-water mark. At another point in the interview, he suggested the majority could be smaller — closer to the 220–215 split Republicans won in 2024.
- "This isn't going to be a 10-seat majority, but it could be a six-seat majority."
