The early read on EPA's new climate counterstrike

Catch up quick: EPA finalized the repeal of 2024 regulations — and then went waaaay further.

• A separate proposal Monday claims EPA lacks Clean Air Act authority to regulate power plants' CO2 emissions "in response to global climate change concerns."
• It's akin to February's repeal of the "endangerment finding" that greenhouse gases from motor vehicles threaten humans.

A few early thoughts...

⚖️ The legal fallout. One immediate thing to watch is any bankshot effects on the current Supreme Court case over whether states and cities can seek climate damages against oil companies in state courts.

• What they're saying: Sierra Club attorney Andres Restrepo notes that oil giants are making constitutional and Clean Air Act arguments against these many cases. EPA's move "substantially weakens" the oil companies' claim that the air law preempts the state-court lawsuits, he said via email.
• What's next: The oral arguments in Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County are Oct. 5, so let's see if this surfaces. And the new final rule will face legal challenges, and so will the supplemental proposal once finalized.

📣 The timing and message. The heads of EPA, the Energy Department, and Interior Department announced the moves at the G20 energy ministers' meeting in Houston.

• Quick take: It's a clear mission statement from the U.S. on the world stage and comes ahead of NYC Climate Week, which has become a major international climate diplomacy session alongside COP.
• Zoom out: I won't get into claims and counterclaims about costs here, but one thing is clear: Trump officials have a dual message that climate change isn't a big deal, and U.S. cars and power plants don't matter much anyway.
• What they're saying: "It's a real issue. It's just not remotely close to the world's biggest problem. If you were honest, I don't think it would make a Top 10 list," DOE head Chris Wright tells The Free Press.
• The other side: "If the U.S. power sector were its own country, it would rank as the world's fifth-largest emitter of climate pollution," the group Evergreen Action said in a statement.

🔭 The endless search for certainty. EPA officials want the plan to provide clearer — and more permissive — rules of the road on fossil-fueled power plant development. "If finalized as proposed, energy producers will be given certainty for the future," an EPA official told reporters.

• Reality check: What can be done via regulation can be undone. Unless Congress passes — and a president signs — something clear on this, the regulatory pendulum will probably stay in motion. But the Supreme Court could have a fresh say, too.

Zoom in: The EPA moves could provide a further boost to natural gas at a time when a huge number of projects are in the pipeline.

• They could also help slow the years-long closure of coal-fired power plants.
• Much less clear is whether any plans for new coal-fired plants will come to fruition.

What we're watching: The scope of EPA's authority to regulate planet-warming gases under current law could be headed back before the Supreme Court.

What they're saying: TD Cowen analysts, in a note, predict the high court would likely be receptive to a "targeted" repeal of the 2024 Biden-era rules, but less so for a major reinterpretation of what's allowed under the Clean Air Act.

• Still, the new proposal to thwart future power plant rules, like repeal of the endangerment finding, points to SCOTUS rulings in 2022 and 2024 that limit what federal agencies can do without explicit congressional blessing.

The bottom line: Trump officials are moving on several fronts to brake and potentially reverse coal's long decline.

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