The Environmental Protection Agency is readying its next moves to thwart carbon emissions rules for power plants — and block a successor from creating new ones.

Why it matters: Generating electricity is the second-largest source of U.S. carbon emissions.

• And power demand has been rising in recent years, a sharp contrast to largely flat consumption from the mid-2000s to the early 2020s.

Driving the news: White House regulatory officials finished reviewing two related items on Friday, records show.

• One is a final rule to scuttle 2024 regulations. A draft of this in 2025 contemplated a finding that U.S. power plants don't contribute "significantly" to dangerous pollution.
• The other is an adjacent proposal about preventing CO2 standards for fossil fuel-powered plants.

What's next: The rollout could happen today on the sidelines of the G20 energy ministers' meeting in Houston, which runs through Wednesday, Bloomberg reports.

• EPA did not provide comment.

The big picture: Environmental attorneys expect EPA to formally conclude the Clean Air Act doesn't authorize direct regulation of power plants' CO2 emissions.

• EPA in February formally repealed the "endangerment finding" that greenhouse gases threaten humans, but that move technically applied only to motor vehicles.
• The new plans on power plants are "expected to mirror" the endangerment finding repeal, E&E News reports.

What they're saying: "So the two biggest slices of the U.S. carbon emissions are, together, still too small to matter? That's crazy. Like saying that over half of a super large pizza has no calories," David Doniger, an attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said via email.

The other side: Critics say Biden-era rules would have made it extremely hard to build large new gas-fired power plants, in addition to spurring retirement of existing coal-fired units.

• Former President Biden's standards relied on carbon capture tech that isn't commercially cost-effective at scale, they said.
• EPA head Lee Zeldin, in a statement alongside last year's proposal, accused Biden officials of trying to "regulate coal, oil and gas out of existence."

What we're watching: Any rules here are likely to be litigated once finalized. The endangerment finding repeal is currently in court.

Oil prices are up today following the attack late last week that disabled a crucial Saudi oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: Higher volumes moving through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea have helped cushion the blow from the throttling of the strait.

Catch up quick: Saudi Arabia said drones launched from Iraq damaged the system.

• Brent crude is trading at $108 this morning, up more than $3 from last week's closing price.

The bottom line: "The relatively contained price reaction suggests the market still expects Saudi inventories to cushion exports in the near term, but if the disruption extends beyond the five-to-seven-day inventory cushion, that could change quickly," Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah said in a note today.

🛢️ The House plans to take up Senate-passed Russia sanctions legislation this week that enables huge new tariffs on top buyers of Russian energy — provisions that would hit China.

• Yes, but: The bill gives the president plenty of leeway to avoid the penalties.
• Friction point: Some senior Democrats oppose giving the White House major new tariff authorities.

⚡ The House will also vote this week on a bill that tells state regulators to consider policies that ensure data center developers cover generation and grid upgrade costs.

• Why it matters: The bipartisan bill, which looks set to sail through, shows the rising political importance of data centers, which face a growing backlash.
• Reality check: It doesn't force states to do anything, and largely reflects tech companies' existing pledges, ongoing state efforts, and the direction that FERC is pushing grid operators.

⚖️ Via AP, "[A] federal court on Friday ruled that the Energy Department exceeded its authority when it forced a Michigan coal-fired power plant to stay open past its scheduled retirement date last year."

Sam Altman-backed Helion Energy is quietly hedging how soon it expects to hit full operation, based on statements from executives and updates to its website.

Why it matters: The startup reached a $15.5 billion post-money valuation by promising to commercialize fusion energy production years ahead of competitors.

State of play: Helion this year removed a prediction from its website that Orion, the company's first commercial power plant, will begin producing electricity by 2028.

• A Helion webpage for Orion now says the plant will "begin initial operations in 2028." It does not define initial operations.
• Full power won't come before 2029 or 2030, an executive acknowledged this summer.

"We will not, in no universe, have 50 megawatts hit full operation in 2028," Helion public affairs director Jackie Siebens said on-stage at the FusionX conference in Boston, per a transcript shared with Axios Pro.

What we're watching: The company's contract with Microsoft requires Orion to at least "be connected to the grid and begin operations by the end of 2028," Siebens said on stage at FusionX.

• It's unclear whether its goal of connecting in 2028 also encompasses supplying electricity.

Context: "The plant will produce at least 50 MWe after an initial ramp-up period," the site had said as recently as December, referring to megawatts-electric.

• The company had also declared last summer that it would begin supplying electricity to Microsoft in 2028.

Friction point: Some energy-focused investors are questioning the fundamental viability of Helion's approach to fusion.

Unlock the whole story, and talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

This chart puts more context around a stunning stat we reported Friday: the International Energy Agency's revised estimate that oil demand will fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year.

State of play: The Iran crisis is pushing down demand for several interlocking reasons.

• Think petrochemical plants dialing back thanks to less supply, higher prices stemming consumer use in some regions, government conservation policies and more.

The bottom line: As you can see above, the decline in 2020 during COVID-19 was much steeper.

• The IEA currently expects that Middle East oil supplies will normalize next year.
• But few analysts imagined the Strait of Hormuz would remain so restricted more than six months after the war started.

That's the share of registered voters who do not think Americans should be willing to pay more for gasoline during the Iran conflict, per a new CBS News-YouGov poll.

Why it matters: The midterms.

• 93% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and 44% of Republicans have this view.
• Full survey