Senate GOP's Midwestern governor's problem
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Brendan Lynch / Axios. Stock: Getty Images
Another warning light is blinking for Senate Republicans: underperforming gubernatorial nominees in three crucial Midwest states.
Why it matters: Strong candidates for governor can act as sheepdogs in tight Senate races, keeping Republican voters — and GOP-curious independents — moving in the party's direction.
- That's adding to GOP anxiety in Michigan and Iowa, where the Democratic gubernatorial nominees have led for much of the summer.
- In Ohio — a state President Trump won by 11 points — the governor's race is tied.
By the numbers: In Iowa, state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads state Rep. Zach Lahn (R) 49.3% to 45.3%, according to 270toWin's polling average.
- In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) leads Rep. John James (R) by an average of 50.2% to 42.4% across the last five polls.
- In Ohio, former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leads former state health director Amy Acton (D) by just half a point, 48% to 47.5%, in an average of two August polls.
The other side: The gubernatorial map isn't flashing warnings everywhere for Senate Republicans.
- Republicans are enthusiastic about Georgia, where the race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) and health care executive Rick Jackson (R) is tight, but Jackson is expected to spend heavily in the final months.
- In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) 47.2% to 43.6%, according to 270toWin.
- And in New Hampshire, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by an average of 49% to 38.5%.
The intrigue: In Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire, the governor's race is at the top of the ticket, potentially creating a stronger draft for the Senate candidates behind them.
- In Iowa, Texas and Georgia, it's the Senate contest that gets top billing, potentially limiting the gubernatorial candidates' coattails.
Zoom out: In previous midterm cycles, strong GOP gubernatorial candidates have run well ahead of their Senate counterparts.
- In Texas in 2018, Abbott won by 13 percentage points while Sen. Ted Cruz (R) squeaked past Beto O'Rourke by fewer than 3.
- In 2022, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) won by nearly 19 points as Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) won by 12.
- In Florida that year, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) cruised to victory by 19 points as Sen. Marco Rubio (R) won by 16.
Zoom in: Coattails aren't tow ropes, and split decisions between the gubernatorial and Senate contests do happen, though they are more common in non-presidential years.
- In 2022, six of the 26 states that held both gubernatorial and Senate elections chose winners from different parties.
- But two years later, with Trump on the ticket, none of the nine states holding both contests split between Democrats and Republicans, although independent Sen. Bernie Sanders won alongside Republican Gov. Phil Scott in Vermont.
The bottom line: Republicans don't need to win every governor's mansion to hold the Senate, but losing badly in Michigan, Iowa or Ohio would make three already tight Senate races that much harder.
