Musk and Zuck's AI comeback
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Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have muscled their way back into AI's elite ranks, defying early obituaries to close the gap on a new generation of Silicon Valley startups.
Why it matters: Recent gains by tech giants SpaceX and Meta — long stuck in AI's second tier — are putting new pressure on a hierarchy dominated by OpenAI and Anthropic.
State of play: Both companies released models this week featuring a combination of performance and price that would have been hard to imagine from either lab a year ago.
- SpaceX's Grok 4.6 scored essentially even with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol Max on the closely watched Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and just behind Anthropic's Fable 5 Max.
- Promising "something special," Musk said Grok 4.7 should arrive in three to four weeks and predicted it will "exceed all current models" after additional training on a massive trove of SpaceX data.
Meta, meanwhile, is trying to squeeze the frontier from below.
- Its new models deliver competitive performance at dramatically lower cost — including Muse Glimmer, an open-weight system small enough to run locally on a laptop.
- Zuckerberg cast the push as "superintelligence for everyone" in a sweeping manifesto this week, reviving Meta's open-AI ambitions as the U.S. races to regain ground from China.
Catch up quick: As OpenAI and Anthropic pulled ahead, Musk and Zuckerberg answered with the full force of their empires — spending billions on talent, infrastructure and acquisitions.
- Zuckerberg overhauled Meta's AI effort after the disappointing launch of Llama 4, then invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI and brought aboard its CEO, Alexandr Wang, to lead the push.
- Musk went even further, folding xAI into SpaceX and agreeing to acquire Cursor for $60 billion — bringing massive computing power, proprietary SpaceX data and a fast-growing AI coding platform under one roof.
Between the lines: The AI race is starting to reward more than raw intelligence, as price becomes a decisive advantage for many users.
- "You don't need to be the highest performing, most expensive model in the market to be able to be successful," Sonali Basak, chief investment strategist at iCapital, told Axios.
- Basak said that raises a more consequential question for Musk and Zuckerberg: whether their AI advancements can "fuel the core businesses" that financed their comeback.
Reality check: The frontier labs still hold pole position — with even more capable models waiting in the wings, including systems deemed too sensitive for public release.
- "I wouldn't say they've caught up to OpenAI or Anthropic," said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.
- A Meta employee told Axios the company still feels behind the frontier labs in model performance and development.
What we're watching: Turbulence at Google could create an opening for either company to seize its place as Wall Street's public-market AI champion.
- Google had emerged as the established tech giant best positioned to challenge OpenAI and Anthropic, pairing elite talent with enormous resources and early momentum.
- That position suddenly looks shakier after an exodus of top AI talent — including Google's chief scientist — and setbacks involving its flagship model Gemini.
The bottom line: OpenAI and Anthropic built their lead through years of technical excellence. Musk and Zuckerberg are nipping at their heels with decades of scale and resources.
