CEO confidence remains weak, new survey finds
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The leaders of America's biggest companies are much less optimistic than they were before the start of the war earlier this year, according to a survey of Fortune 500 leaders out Thursday morning.
Why it matters: When leaders are feeling optimistic, they push for more hiring, capital investment and dealmaking, and that drives growth in the economy and markets.
- And all of that is critically important right now — businesses' AI infrastructure spending is a key driver of GDP growth. Regular folks, meanwhile, are struggling in the face of rising prices.
Where it stands: CEO confidence rose 5 points, to 52, per the survey, fielded in late July by The Conference Board, a nonpartisan think tank, and The Business Council, an association of CEOs.
- Any number above 50 signals more positive than negative responses.
- But this is a partial recovery: Three months ago, CEO confidence had plunged 12 points, to 47, on the heels of the U.S. attacks on Iran and the subsequent rise in energy prices.
Zoom in: CEOs aren't exactly dancing in the streets here.
- "The number now is just barely above 50, so it's not a tremendous amount of optimism," Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson tells Axios.
- The survey was conducted from July 13-27, when oil prices were easing up from previous highs. Executives "saw things as calming down," she says.
The big picture: America's CEOs have been on a mood roller coaster since President Trump took office last year. At first, optimism spiked in anticipation of relaxed regulations, lower taxes and more dealmaking.
- Optimism plummeted, however, just a few months later after the "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced — and it has never quite recovered.
- It got close at the start of 2026, but stumbled again after the U.S. attacked Iran in late February. This survey shows a partial recovery from there.
How it works: The confidence index measures CEOs' assessment of the overall economy compared with six months ago, plus their expectations for both the economy and their own industry over the next half year.
Between the lines: Confidence for everyone has trended lower all year, separate Conference Board data shows.
By the numbers: Under the hood, it looks as if CEOs were just less negative.
- 26% said economic conditions were worse than six months ago — down significantly from 47% three months ago.
- 23% said conditions in their own industries were worse, down from 33%.
Friction point: Hiring is in a stuck spot. Overall uncertainty is leaving many companies in "stasis," Peterson says. Companies are reluctant to fire or to hire.
- Workers feel terrible about all this, as Axios' Courtenay Brown reported Monday.
What to watch: We'll learn more on that front Friday, when the Labor Department releases the July employment report.
- And if oil prices return to the highs we saw earlier this year, it's possible confidence among CEOs will move back down, Peterson says.
State of play: Corporate America is broadly having a knockout earnings season, and the stock market is soaring to new heights.
- But that's masking the continued pressure on regular folks — particularly lower-income earners.
- Companies that rely on consumer spending are talking about the contrast. The lower-income consumer "continues to be pressured," is how Coca-Cola CEO Henrique Braun put it on a call in late July, when the company reported relatively strong earnings growth overall, according to a transcript from S&P CapitalIQ.
- Shake Shack's chief executive Robert Lynch talked about the "uncertain macro environment" (and rising beef prices) on the company's call Wednesday, according to a transcript from AlphaSense.
