SpaceX rocket debris will hit the Moon tomorrow
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
The upper stage of a SpaceX rocket will unintentionally crash into the Moon early Wednesday morning.
Driving the news: The Falcon 9 rocket launched in 2025, carrying a pair of privately-funded lunar rovers.
- The upper stage was left in a high Earth orbit that occasionally crosses the Moon's path. Gravity and other forces then sealed its fate.
- The resulting crater could be about 90 feet across and about 16 feet deep, scientists estimate — too small to directly observe from Earth, but viewable by orbiting spacecraft.
How it works: SpaceX typically de-orbits Falcon 9 upper stages, letting them burn up in Earth's atmosphere.
- There wasn't enough fuel left to do that after this particular high-orbit launch.
The big picture: The inevitable collision is a reminder that our celestial neighborhood is getting busier by the day, with nearly 30,000 active satellites and trackable bits of space junk (dead satellites, spent rocket segments, etc.) now orbiting Earth.
- SpaceX's Starlink internet constellation accounts for more than half of all active commercial satellites, per Orbital Radar.
- Advocates lament the ever-busier night sky, which compromises both recreational stargazing and scientific observations.
Yes, but: Many astronomers are actually looking forward to this particular event as a chance to collect valuable data about Moon collisions.
- It's not every day you can predict when something will smack into our nearest celestial companion.
- NASA says it'll take pictures of the impact site from lunar orbit, offering key visual data.
Flashback: Rocket segments have pelted the Moon before — most recently in 2022 with the upper stage of China's Long March 3C rocket, but also back during NASA's Apollo era.
- The Moon is also constantly being bombarded by asteroids, without a thick atmosphere to burn them up before impact.
What's next: SpaceX says it's working on better ways to handle spent rocket segments from high-orbit launches.
- That's a key step if the Trump administration's lunar colony dreams are to be realized. Life on the Moon would be hard enough without worrying about rocket bits raining down from above.
