Reliably red Ohio suddenly a red-hot mess for GOP

• Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion.

Zoom in: The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied.

• Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller on Monday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios.
• "It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win."
• Miller told Trump he was staying in the race.

For Ohio Republicans, Miller's situation has muddied their prospects in a November election that will be a key test of whether Trump's populist coalition can withstand the growing discontent with his war in Iran and the economy.

• Republicans now say they'll spend tens of millions of dollars in Ohio races they once were heavily favored to win this fall.
• It's a striking turn of events: Two years ago, Trump won Ohio by 11 points — the largest margin in Ohio for any winning presidential candidate in four decades.
• "Ohio is ground zero of the environment this cycle," a national Republican strategist tells Axios. "Take a GOP voter depression, mix it with the war in Iran, and now sprinkle with some Max Miller abuse [allegations], and you've got the recipe for a very dicey outcome in November."

The races giving Republicans the most heartburn:

1. Miller's debacle

The ex-wife he's accused of abusing is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno.

• Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller in the conservative House district.
• Republicans worry that Democrats will run ads tying Miller to other Ohio candidates, who are beginning to face uncomfortable questions about whether they support Miller.

One leading Republican definitely does not: Moreno, who over the weekend said his former son-in-law "should not serve" in Congress and called on him to resign.

• Other Ohio Republicans are holding out hope that Miller quits and is replaced on the ballot by state Sen. Jane Timken — a move that would have to happen by Wednesday.
• But as he told Trump on Monday, Miller has vowed to stay in the race.

2. The Senate race

Republicans say they've viewed private polling showing GOP Sen. Jon Husted in a dead heat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

• Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1.
• Republicans concede Brown has found a potent line of attack against Husted by casting him as "the face of data centers in Ohio."
• Some Republicans worry that Husted has run a lackluster campaign and hasn't distinguished himself since being appointed to succeed Vance last year.

But a senior Republican told Axios that Husted has taken steps to get on track, including by hiring veteran strategist Matt Mason to help oversee his campaign.

• Others noted that Moreno was trailing Brown at this point two years ago, but ended up winning by 4 points.

3. The governor's race

Polls are showing former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Amy Acton.

• Some Republicans say Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over the state's blue-collar voters.
• He's also faced some backlash from conservatives, particularly over his support for developing data centers for AI. He was heckled at a libertarian conference last week.

Still, Republicans say Ramaswamy appears to be in better shape than Miller or Husted, and that he's the most likely of the three to win in November.

What we're watching: Some Republicans fear the party's struggles in Ohio could signal broader weakness across blue-collar states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.