Bond traders are tuning out Trump posts
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Three months into the Iran war, bond market traders are tuning out President Trump's posts on his personal social media site, Truth Social, analysts say.
Why it matters: Researchers from JPMorgan show that for the most part, his social media posts are noise, with very little ability to move the market.
What they're saying: "Although the bulk of the president's posts about the Middle East do not have a particularly dramatic effect on rates volatility on 30-minute timescales, a handful of posts coincide with volatility on this timescale well beyond what would be expected from 'normal' volatility," JPMorgan rates analysts wrote.
- Looking at the impact of the president's Truth Social posts since the start of the Iran war, these analysts found more recent pronouncements had a weaker impact on yields on U.S. government bonds.
- That suggests "the reaction of rates markets to President Trump's posts about the Middle East conflict has decayed over time despite the conflict still being ongoing," they wrote.
Yes, but: This doesn't mean the markets can completely afford to ignore the world's most powerful politician, especially given his unprecedented willingness to personally intervene to influence markets — from posting about individual stocks to oil and energy markets.
Context: The president's social media company is reportedly planning to sell early access to the feed to Wall Street traders, who could profit from knowing ahead of time about a Truth message that might trigger volatility.
The bottom line: Even if most of the president's social media musings are not relevant to investors, at least some can still move the markets.
- And that means plenty on Wall Street will be more than willing to pay a premium for priority access.
