Democrats are struggling with a growing mess in Maine

Driving the news: Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap, a progressive, defeated centrist state Sen. Joe Baldacci in the Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, election officials announced early Friday.

• Dunlap's victory came despite the DCCC adding Baldacci to its coveted "Red to Blue" list and spending $7,500 on a joint ad buy with him.
• It's the second time this month a DCCC-backed candidate has lost their primary after progressive Randy Villegas defeated centrist Jasmeet Bains in California.

State of play: Dunlap now faces Republican former Gov. Paul LePage, who carried the 2nd District in his comeback bid for governor in 2022 even as he lost statewide by double digits.

• The seat, which went for President Trump by 9 points in 2024, has long been seen by Republicans as a top pickup opportunity.
• Republicans saw an opening in the district when Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — a consistent electoral over-performer — announced his retirement last fall.
• The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP's main super PAC, has $5.2 million in ad reservations in the district.

What they're saying: "In a midterm election where voters across the spectrum are done with Republicans ... ME-02 remains squarely in play," DCCC spokesperson Riya Vashi said in a statement to Axios.

• What she didn't say was whether Dunlap would be added to the "Red to Blue" program, a courtesy extended to Villegas the day after his victory.
• CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the House Majority PAC — CLF's Democratic counterpart — told Axios in a statement that they "look forward to ensuring [LePage] loses in November," but didn't mention Dunlap.
• HMP had established a joint fundraising committee with Baldacci and reserved $8.2 million on general election ads before the primary, according to AdImpact.

What we're hearing: A source familiar with the discussions between the DCCC and the Dunlap campaign said they are "making inroads and beginning ... discussions of course," noting Friday that it had "been less than a day."

• A Democratic operative familiar with the DCCC's selection process for the Red to Blue program told Axios, "The onus is on Dunlap to make the case for his viability."
• "The DCCC has plenty of paths to the majority that don't require winning ME-02," they added, "and absent the right candidate, it goes into the category of other Trump +9 districts that may or may not get investment."

Zoom in: A senior House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid analysis on the race, told Axios the seat is "probably lost."

• Holding it, they said, "was going to be tough anyway without Jared."

The other side: "They absolutely should add Dunlap to the Red to Blue. We need to support nominees supported by the people, even when not the establishment's choice," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

• The California Democrat, who supported Dunlap in the primary, said that "the establishment pulling the purse strings from progressive candidates would create a self-fulfilling prophecy."
• "If they do not add him to Red to Blue and fund him, it would be a signal that they care more about boxing progressives out than winning the majority," he said, adding, "I do not believe that will be the case."
• Another House Democrat told Axios, "It's still an important seat to get to the majority" and that they "think the DCCC will be there."

Zoom out: This comes as some Democrats have publicly raised concerns about the scandals surrounding Platner and openly worried that he will be a drag on the ticket in Maine.

• The Democratic National Committee even replaced digital ads that previously featured Platner among its candidates locked in "dead heat" races with ones that exclude him.