Primaries leave muddled picture of Dems' way ahead
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Moderate and establishment-oriented Democrats have a slight edge as vote-counting in Tuesday's primary contests continues, but progressives have clinched some wins — leaving a muddled picture of what party's voters want heading into the 2026 midterms.
- "It's a bit of a mixed bag," said Adam Frisch, the finance chair of the moderate Democratic group Welcome, which is throwing a confab in D.C. today that's billed as the "largest public gathering of centrists."
Why it matters: Democrats are in the midst of a civil war, with moderates and progressives divided over everything from economic agendas to foreign policy.
- This year's primaries will help shape the party's platform not just for the Nov. 3 elections, but also for 2028.
Driving the news: Some of Tuesday's races are still close to call, but here's what we know now about the most-watched races:
- Iowa's Senate primary: Moderate state lawmaker Josh Turek easily topped Zach Wahls, a progressive endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), with a $10 million assist from an organization often aligned with the Democratic establishment. That's a win for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who quietly indicated he thought Turek was more likely to flip a Senate seat in this deep-red state. Wahls made Schumer a bogeyman and ran on an "Iowans Over Insiders" pitch.
- New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) got their pick: Adam Hamawy, a U.S. Army veteran and plastic surgeon, won a plurality of the vote in a crowded field. He's all but assured to win in November in this deep-blue district. A pro-Palestinian organization poured money into ads for Hamawy, helping him overcome criticism over his former ties to an infamous Islamist cleric.
- California's 11th Congressional District: In this closely watched race to succeed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, anti-establishment leftist Saikat Chakrabarti fell short. The state has a "jungle primary," in which the top two candidates advance to the November election regardless of party. Two Democrats — state Sen. Scott Wiener, a relative moderate in the San Francisco area, and Connie Chan, a Pelosi-endorsed progressive — will face off this fall.
- California's 22nd Congressional District: Progressive Randy Villegas is leading establishment-backed Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the matchup to take on top vote-getter GOP Rep. David Valadao in the fall. But the race between the Democrats in the state's Central Valley is still too close to call.
- California's open primary for governor: This race hasn't been called yet, but Donald Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra are ahead. Billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who ran as a progressive, is in third place with 58% of the vote counted.
What they're saying: Tommy McDonald, a progressive strategist who helped make ads backing Villegas and other left-wing contenders this year, said that "the populists got serious juice" coming out of Tuesday.
- "Candidates fighting the establishment are over-performing or straight-up winning in races they are badly outspent in," he added.
- Frisch said he was "happy to see what happened out in Iowa," but called Hamawy's victory in New Jersey's 12th District primary "heartbreaking."
- "I was in the 100th floor of the World Trade Center in '93," he said, adding that he was in disbelief watching the "Democratic leadership congratulating him."
Flashback: The mixed results Tuesday mirror the outcomes in the 2025 elections, when both flanks of the party could credibly claim victory.
- Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayor's race last year, while center-left Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill carried the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests, respectively.
