Summer box office reflects new media reality
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A disappointing theatrical debut over the weekend for Star Wars' newest film "The Mandalorian & Grogu" suggests streaming hits don't always translate to box office success. But that might not matter as much as it once did.
Why it matters: For Disney, Star Wars has always been bigger than ticket sales. That's true now more than ever as the entertainment giant further diversifies its business across screens, consumer products and experiences.
- The summer movie season remains Hollywood's most important window, typically accounting for about 40% of the annual box office, Comscore's head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian tells Axios.
State of play: "The Mandalorian & Grogu" opened to roughly $81 million for the three-day domestic box office over the Memorial Day weekend. The film added about $64 million internationally over the three days.
- That marks the lowest opening for a Star Wars film under Disney's ownership. The previous low was "Solo: A Star Wars Story," which opened to $85 million over the three-day Memorial Day weekend in 2018.
- Dergarabedian noted the holiday weekend can swing sharply year to year, pointing to one of the weakest performances in decades in 2024 and a record-setting 2025.
Between the lines: The new Star Wars film benefited from premium ticket sales. About 41% of tickets were sold for premium large formats like IMAX and Dolby, according to EntTelligence data cited by CNBC.
- That turnout shows how moviegoers are increasingly opting for higher-quality theater experiences over standard showings. IMAX is exploring a sale amid its successful run, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The big picture: Hollywood is recalibrating as the pandemic-era streaming boom hits a saturation point. Entertainment giants are no longer touting subscriber numbers and instead focusing on profitability and creating intellectual property flywheels.
- At Disney's Upfront earlier this month, advertising president Rita Ferro emphasized how the company focuses on "stories that move people and franchises that spark fandom" and how "fandom lives far beyond the screen — in culture, in community and in commerce."
- "The Mandalorian" ranks as the most-watched original series on Disney+. But the character Grogu, widely known as Baby Yoda, is also a major commercial asset, fueling merchandise sales and theme park tickets. Disney integrated Grogu into the parks, including updating an attraction.
- At the same time, lower-budget films are emerging as box office success stories, including the new horror film "Obsession."
What to watch: Analysts are broadly optimistic about the summer box office. Dergarabedian says the season is shaping up to be "hot" thanks to the density of "huge films" and studio marketing power behind them.
- He pointed to releases that appeal to "movie buffs," including Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" and Steven Spielberg's "Disclosure Day," along with "family fun" titles like Disney's "Toy Story 5" and Universal's "Minions & Monsters."
- Looking further into the summer, Dergarabedian added that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opening in late July will "power well into what could be a very strong month of August," traditionally a softer period for theaters.
