2026 map swings back toward Trump
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Photo illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios. Photos: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Republican chances of keeping the House are surging, as panicked Democrats scramble to offset back-to-back-to-back redistricting blows.
Why it matters: Democrats feel good about their midterms affordability message. But they're nervous about the math for retaking the House now that Republicans appear (for now) to have won this year's redistricting wars.
- And they are wondering why the party spent $65 million on a losing effort.
- "F*****ck!!" one House Democrat texted Axios' Andrew Solender after Virginia's Supreme Court invalidated the state's new congressional maps.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) vowed to pursue "all options to overturn this shocking decision."
Zoom in: Depression dominated Democrats' public statements and private text threads as the party absorbed its third redistricting loss in 12 days.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis responded to Virginia's aggressive D+4 redistricting on April 21 by unveiling maps on April 27 that carved four additional Republican seats into Florida's 20-8 map.
- The U.S. Supreme Court opened the door on April 29 to another four or five Republican seats across the South by weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
- Then the Virginia Supreme Court's ruling Friday turned a slight GOP advantage into a clear edge.
Zoom out: The significance of the Virginia ruling may seem seismic today. By November 2026, it could look incidental.
- If the political environment turns sharply against Trump and Republicans — fueled by rising inflation and sinking consumer confidence — Democrats may not have to worry about the X's and O's of redistricting.
- Even with Friday's ruling, Virginia Democrats are confident they can unseat one — and maybe two — of the state's four House Republicans in November.
Between the lines: Democrats are taking comfort in another trend: their candidates have consistently overperformed in special elections this cycle compared with Trump-era turnout.
- In Michigan on Tuesday, the Democratic Senate candidate won by 19 points in a district former Vice President Harris carried by less than 1 point in 2024.
What they're saying: "A sad day indeed, but I'm proud of Virginians' willingness to stay true to our state's motto after 250 years," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). "That spirit is needed now more than ever."
- "We respect the court. But we will keep fighting for a democracy where voters — not politicians — have the final say," said state Del. Don Scott, the Speaker of the House of Delegates.
The other side: Gratitude and exultation defined the Republican response.
- "I thank the Supreme Court for its courage in standing up for what is right," said Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), who would have seen her seat eviscerated by the new maps.
- "This win is yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We're on offense, and we're going to win," said Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (R-N.C.).
