The AI trade is back on

• "This level of investor interest in AI stocks has not been seen" since the first half of 2025, JPMorgan global equity strategists wrote in a note Tuesday.

The intrigue: Anthropic's April 7 announcement about its Mythos model drove the rally, they say.

• The company said that Mythos was so powerful and dangerous, it had to limit access to a select few organizations.
• That sheen of danger and exclusivity acted like catnip to companies, investors and even those inside the federal government, which had been trying to ban the company.

Zoom in: It was a "key catalyst," the JPMorgan analysts said.

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 10% from April 7. The S&P 500 is up 7% over the same time period.
• 66% of AI stocks on the S&P 500 have outperformed since the launch, per JPMorgan's analysis — evidence of improving models and AI services, coming as Anthropic's revenue run rate has tripled and OpenAI's new model is also expected to be better.

The big picture: Those outside Wall Street have been flummoxed by the stock market's recent star performance, coming alongside news of elevated inflation, rising oil prices and shifting geopolitics.

• Investors are ignoring all that, noted Kyla Scanlon, an economics commentator, in a New York Times op-ed headlined "Why the stock market makes no sense right now."
• She warned that there's plenty of downside risk to the AI trade: "AI is not at all safe from the risks that markets are ignoring. If anything, it's extraordinarily exposed to them."

Zoom out: The stock market's positive moves off an Anthropic release are the reverse of what happened earlier this year, when each new announcement from the company seemed to send stock prices down across a different industry.

• The software sector still hasn't fully recovered from that turmoil.

Between the lines: The tech industry has always thrived on limited beta releases and exclusive access to hype a product — the Mythos release landed squarely in that tradition.

• While Anthropic and OpenAI say that they're just trying to be candid about the risks of AI, others see their actions as marketing.
• "It's part fundraising. It's part justifying their existence. It's part audience engagement. It's probably a little part ego, too," Steve Dowling, a former tech executive and co-host of the "Communication Breakdown" podcast, said on a call hosted by Mixing Board, the communications membership organization.

Friction point: Wall Street might like what Anthropic is saying, but many Americans are pretty freaked out.

• 50% of Americans are more concerned than excited about AI, according to a recent Pew survey.
• The AI companies are "scaring the bejeezus out of the public," White House AI czar David Sacks said recently on the "All-In Podcast," referring to recent comments from AI CEOs.

The bottom line: Main Street's nightmares are fueling Wall Street's dreams.