Behind the Curtain: The kids aren't AI-right, Part 2
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We wrote last week about the societal, academic and economic implications of young Americans scared of AI ("The kids aren't AI-right, Part 1"). Today, we dig deeper into job panic.
Young Americans are scared of more than AI. They're downright panicky about finding a job at all.
- Only 20% of young workers told Gallup in Q4 last year that it's a good time to find a quality job, down from 62% at the pollster's peak for the measure in October 2021. You rarely see mood swings this severe.
Why it matters: For 70 years, a bachelor's degree was the most reliable on-ramp to a stable career. That's no longer true. And that's before AI hits entry-level work at scale.
This isn't just worried kids succumbing to bad vibes. It's a hard, empirical reality. Let's dig deeper into the numbers, all based on the latest N.Y. Fed data from December:
- The U.S. unemployment rate is 4.2% — near generational lows. For recent college grads ages 22-27, it's 5.6%.
- That remains close to the widest gap on record. Until COVID, college grads almost always had lower unemployment rates than the overall workforce.
Blame AI, right? Well, the evidence is inconclusive. There are many reasons, but uncertainty strikes us as the leading cause.
- It doesn't motivate employers to hire when AI execs warn their products will handle huge swaths of entry-level white-collar tasks. That gives permission to pause hiring — or even shed jobs — in anticipation.
We talk to scores of CEOs every month and hear a common theme: With so much uncertainty about the economy, tariffs, geopolitics and AI, it's easier to freeze hiring and take a wait-and-see approach.
- Many feel they overhired during COVID and don't want to staff up now, only to lay people off if AI does what its makers promise.
- Indeed, CEOs tell us they assume AI will replace a lot of white-collar work. So they've paused backfilling jobs typically filled by junior new hires.
- Think of it this way: AI anticipation is the factor right now, not AI implementation.
Between the lines: Even the glimmers of good news might not be what they appear. ZipRecruiter's annual grad report out last week found that the share of recent grads landing a job within three months of graduation increased to 77% this year from 63% last year.
- But the survey also found that 73% of recent grads are actively considering gig or freelance work. Only a quarter are on their dream career path.
- "It could be working in a fast-food place or driving for DoorDash," ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud told the Wall Street Journal about the pop in employed grads.
Reality check: Young people aren't helpless and unemployable. They need to ensure their majors match the changing landscape and master the AI skills employers will demand in the coming years.
The bottom line: This is an employment problem that'll likely grow into a big political one as America heads toward 2028.
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