Iran war gives U.S. consumers the inflation jitters
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American consumers are bracing for an Iran war inflation jolt, though they don't anticipate the effects will linger.
- That's the upshot of the New York Federal Reserve Bank's March Survey of Consumer Expectations, the first to capture sentiment since the war began.
Why it matters: So far, that is more consistent with a one-time inflation surge than the alternative outcome that might alarm the Fed: signs of unmooring in long-run inflation expectations.
By the numbers: Median one-year inflation expectations jumped 0.4 percentage point, to 3.4%, last month, according to the New York Fed. It was driven by a surge in gas price expectations, to the highest level since March 2022, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine.
- Still, three-year expectations ticked up just 0.1 percentage point, to 3.1%, while five-year expectations held at 3%.
What to watch: Consumers see the labor market and their own financial situations worsening alongside higher inflation in the short-term.
- Americans feel worse about their finances now and don't expect things to improve, with the share of households anticipating a worse year ahead reaching its highest level since April 2025.
Zoom in: On average, consumers increased odds that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now by 3.6 percentage points, pushing this measure to its highest since April 2025.
- They also saw greater odds of losing their job in the year ahead, but that measure remains below the past year's average.
One bright spot: Consumers anticipated that it would be a bit easier to find a new job if their current gig was lost.
