Pressure on Trump? Wall Street's got an index for that

There's a lot of pressure on President Trump to pull back from the Iran war, and Wall Street has figured out a way to chart it.

How it works: Maximilian Uleer, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, came up with a "pressure index" that considers the one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, stock market performance and whether people and bond markets are expecting higher inflation. (Thanks to the Financial Times' Robert Armstrong for highlighting this index.)

Where it stands: The index is higher now than it was even during "Liberation Day," when the S&P 500 tumbled on the announcement of huge tariffs on basically every country in the world.

Between the lines: The difference? To paraphrase James Carville, it's the gas prices, stupid.

• The national average for a gallon of gasoline is now hovering just below $4. And there are scorecards of rising gas prices plastered on every big road in the country.
• There's also a notion on Wall Street that Trump is likely to pull back on a policy if the stock market falls about 5% from its highs, Jose Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told Axios last week.

By the numbers: Since reaching an all-time high in January, the S&P 500 is now down more than 5%.

The big picture: Most Wall Street analysts are expecting that Trump will do what it takes to end the war and get the Strait of Hormuz reopened to bring gas prices back down before the midterm elections.

Zoom in: Dips in approval ratings have led to other capitulations from Trump over the past year, a separate note from the bank points out.

Reality check: Most presidents are sensitive to declines in the stock market and public opinion, especially around high gas prices.