Why U.K. bond yields are soaring
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The latest global fallout from the Iran war: skyrocketing borrowing costs in the U.K.
Why it matters: Yields on its benchmark government bond hit the highest level since 2008 — an uncomfortable surge for the nation that has seen a historic backlash from bond investors over its fiscal backdrop in recent years.
- It is also a global warning about a sharp repricing of inflation risk that can slam economies already grappling with higher energy costs.
The backdrop: British yields are higher now than they were at the height of the 2022 Liz Truss fiasco, when the nation's then-prime minister proposed a fiscal budget with billions of pounds in unfunded tax cuts.
- The difference now, of course, is the source of the panic — now, it has been triggered by inflationary concerns from a war it did not start and is not directly involved in, instead of domestic fiscal proposals.
Zoom in: The U.K.'s reliance on imported oil makes it especially vulnerable to the types of supply shocks that have been common in the 2020s.
- The surge in energy prices risks rippling through the British economy. It has heightened bets that the Bank of England will increase interest rates several times this year, a reversal from previous expectations of easier monetary policy.
- That's despite Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey's attempt to calm markets last week: "I would caution against reaching any strong conclusions about us raising interest rates," he told reporters on Thursday.
The bottom line: The bond sell-off is leaving the British government with even less headroom to maneuver through the crisis. The European Union is considering temporary measures to ease the burden on consumers.
- "[W]hat's happening now is a reminder that reckless fiscal policy leaves you vulnerable when unexpected shocks hit," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a blog post over the weekend.
Go deeper: Washington ignored America's fiscal cliff
