Mullin expected to advance to Senate floor — and confirmation
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Sen. Markwayne Mullin's Cabinet nomination is expected to advance out of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Thursday morning — even with Chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) firmly opposed.
Why it matters: The hearing was tense, with pointed exchanges, but history — and the math — favor Mullin's succeeding Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary.
- Senatorial courtesy typically smooths the path for current or former colleagues. And when that fails, partisan backing from a president's own party almost always carries a nominee across the finish line.
- "I think it's a chemistry thing between two members," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told Axios. "I don't think you can read a trend into it."
- "Markwayne handled himself OK. He's going to get confirmed."
State of play: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has indicated he will vote to advance Mullin out of committee Thursday at 9:30 am.
- If Paul ultimately votes against Mullin on the floor, he would be the only senator in modern history to oppose a fellow senator nominated by a president of his own party.
Flashback: The last rejected Cabinet nominee who also served in the Senate was Sen. John Tower (R-Texas), whose 1989 bid to serve as President George H.W. Bush's Defense secretary failed 47–53 amid allegations of heavy drinking.
- But not a single Republican voted against Tower.
"I voted for Tower," former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) told Axios on Wednesday at the Capitol.
- "There's a little something between Rand Paul and the nominee," Lott added. "They need to cool it a little bit."
- "Frankly, they're both a little out of order."
The bottom line: Former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) saw his former Republican colleagues abandon him when President Obama nominated him for defense secretary in 2013.
- However, he was still confirmed, 58–41, with four Republicans voting yes.
- One of them: Rand Paul.
