The Iran conflict matters more for inflation than growth
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Americans will see higher prices for energy in the weeks ahead. They aren't likely to see the kind of broad economic slowdown that has accompanied oil price shocks in the past.
The big picture: That's the implication of early market moves following the U.S. and Israeli strikes. It follows logically from a reordering of global energy markets over the last two decades.
- Indeed, it's easy to imagine that this new geoeconomics of oil gave President Trump comfort in launching the attacks, grave risks notwithstanding.
State of play: For the last half-decade, the U.S. has been a net exporter of oil, reflecting the fracking boom of the 2010s.
- That doesn't mean that the U.S. imports no oil, nor that domestic consumers won't pay a price for higher oil — it is a global market.
- It does mean that in terms of economic aggregates, the pinch at the pump due to geopolitics would be expected to be more than offset by higher incomes for U.S. drillers, their shareholders, suppliers and employees.
- And energy now accounts for a lower share of total personal consumption than in decades past.
Zoom out: In effect, higher oil prices in this era wouldn't be expected to cause a broad slowdown or recession, but to shift economic activity among different sectors and regions.
- It's good news for oil-producing regions like Texas, Oklahoma and the Dakotas, and bad news for the Northeast and West Coast.
Flashback: It is a contrast with past moments of Middle East crisis, which caused surging energy prices that did serious damage to the U.S. economy, creating serious stagflationary shocks.
- That happened with the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and accompanying oil embargo, as well as the 1978 Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war that began in 1980.
- Oil price spikes due to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait and ensuing war helped cause the 1991 U.S. recession.
Reality check: War is unpredictable, and there are certainly ways the Iran situation could spiral out of control and endanger global growth. But the early read of markets is that it will amount to a moderate hit for Europe, and an even smaller one for the U.S.
By the numbers: As of mid-morning Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 6%, to around $71 a barrel. Gasoline futures were up 4%. But U.S. stocks were just barely down.
- Treasury yields were higher, not lower, as is normally seen at a moment of geopolitical strife as investors seek safety.
- That implies bond traders are less worried about broad global economic distress and more worried that higher inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines, slowing or preventing interest rate cuts this year.
Between the lines: The Fed generally tries to look through inflation caused by swings in energy prices, which are seen as one-time events. But this is a fraught inflationary moment, coming after five consecutive years of inflation above the Fed's 2% target.
- An Iran-driven energy price surge may be one-off, but it follows a series of other one-off events — the pandemic supply chain disruptions, Biden fiscal stimulus, Trump tariffs — that risk de-anchoring Americans' confidence in price stability.
The bottom line: "Ultimately, the trajectory of energy prices is likely to be the biggest knock-on effect from this weekend's military action," Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds of Glenmede wrote in a note.
- "Sustained increases in crude oil and natural gas prices would likely feed through to inflation expectations, consumer spending and corporate margins," they added.
- "Conversely, if production and transit routes remain largely intact, market impacts may prove temporary and volatility-driven rather than growth-driven."
