Trump opens the alien files: Why Americans lean into conspiracies
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President Trump vowed this week to release the government's files on aliens and UFOs, the latest instance of declassifying records that have fueled Americans' fascination with conspiracies for decades.
Why it matters: Beliefs about extraterrestrials and suspicion of government secrecy run deep for some, and researchers tell Axios that conspiracy theories often signal entrenched political or social notions.
Driving the news: Last year, Trump declassified files related to the killings of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. Interest in all three assassinations has long been fueled by conspiracy theories.
- These selective releases of government files are priming Americans to "demand to see receipts about everything," Keith Livers, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin, says.
- "They're going to want to see the documents because it's so clear that the government has a long history of selectively releasing information, not releasing it at all, [or] destroying information."
Behind the scenes: Conspiracy theories typically have "a deeper narrative that's actually much more interesting and less cringe-worthy or laugh-worthy," Livers says.
- With aliens, that's typically considered the 1947 Roswell incident.
- Both Trump and former President Obama have recently spoken on whether aliens exist. Obama said yes, then backtracked. Trump wasn't sure — and accused Obama of disclosing classified information.
- More than half (56%) of U.S. adults said they believe aliens exist, per November YouGov polling, and nearly half (47%) believe aliens have "definitely" or "probably" visited Earth.
Yes, but: Americans tend to be more interested in aliens than people in other countries, Joseph E. Uscinski, a professor at the University of Miami, says.
- "It's entertaining stuff," he says. "We shouldn't be shocked that people would enjoy news reports about it simply because there's lots of movies about it. Alien movies tend to do really well, they have for a long period of time. People find it fascinating."
The big picture: Information vacuums combined with unknown political landscapes help fuel conspiracy theories, Axios' Avery Lotz previously reported.
- Americans are quite bad at identifying what is or isn't a conspiracy theory when it's something they believe, according to 2024 research from the University of Illinois Chicago.
The intrigue: Conspiracism isn't necessarily partisan.
- "People are complicated, and people have numerous different dispositions," Uscinski says.
- "So you could imagine someone who sees the world in very conspiratorial terms, but is on the left. Well, they're not going to believe conspiracy theories about Barack Obama because he's on their team and vice versa."
The bottom line: "Conspiracy theories are beliefs like any other belief," Uscinski says. "People are struggling to make sense of a dizzying world."
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