Why Tesla earnings might not matter much
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Tesla is coming full circle back to a time when its sales and earnings didn't much matter, and investors focus on future potential.
Why it matters: Tesla's EV sales last year hit their lowest level since 2022, but the company's stock is increasingly tied to its AI ambitions — including humanoid robots and robotaxis.
The big picture: Tesla's earnings report on Wednesday will deliver insights into how deeply the company's sales slump is dinging the bottom line — but investors are expected to focus largely on what CEO Elon Musk says about the future.
- He told the World Economic Forum in Davos last week that Tesla would begin selling humanoids by the end of 2027: "I think everyone on earth is going to have one and want one."
- And the company has already launched self-driving car services in Austin, Texas, with plans to expand throughout the country.
What they're saying: "We expect Robotaxi and Optimus to dominate the call, with long-range aspirations to vertically integrate a chip fab and a potential collaboration for data centers in space spliced in," William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer writes in a research note.
- Investors will be looking for updates on those goals: "We don't believe the auto business will garner much attention," Dorsheimer adds.
By the numbers: If Tesla's financial performance were the subject of investors' focus, it would not be a pretty picture.
- Vehicle deliveries fell 8.6% in 2025 to 1.64 million.
- And the market is "signaling increased pessimism around top-line growth," S&P Global Visible Alpha analyst Melissa Otto tells Axios.
- She said Q4 revenue expectations have fallen from $28.4 billion to about $25 billion.
- Meanwhile, projected 2026 earnings have also declined from $3.02 per share to $2.20, she said.
The intrigue: One murky aspect of Tesla's future is whether a potential SpaceX IPO could divert the attention and capital of Musk's biggest backers.
- "We see potential risk that the IPO could be negative for Tesla stock — not only might it shift Elon Musk's focus to SpaceX, but it also might split the retail base which has been an anchor for Tesla stock, as investors will now have a different publicly traded option in the market to invest in Elon Musk," writes Barclays analyst Dan Levy in a research note.
The bottom line: Tesla's EV business is increasingly in the rearview mirror as far as investors are concerned.
