What your local Waffle House can tell you about this week's winter storm
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Waffle House on March 29, 2021 in Bessemer, Alabama. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images
Nearly 148 million Americans are bracing for this week's potentially historic winter storm — and if the Waffle House near you closes, that could tell you just how serious it is.
The big picture: After the 2004 hurricane season, former Obama-era FEMA administrator Craig Fugate began discussing the Waffle House index, which suggests that closures of the famously reliable 24-hour chain indicate how bad a storm is in your area.
- And no, Fugate isn't suggesting the index is a scientific measure of storm severity, but rather an indicator of community disruption, including power, staffing, access and supply chains, he says.
- While the index hasn't gone live for the storm yet, Fugate predicts those in the southern part of the storm track could see shutdowns as roads become undrivable — even for first responders and utility crews.
How it works: The index is color-coded and simplified.
- Green means the store is open and serving its full menu — a sign the community is functioning.
- Yellow indicates a store is open but with a limited menu.
- Red means a full closure, highlighting serious disruptions in the area.
- "In short: it works because it reflects how a community is functioning, not because it measures the storm itself," Fugate tells Axios.
The latest: The National Weather Service forecasts "significant to locally catastrophic ice accumulations with the potential for long-duration power outages, extensive tree damage and extremely dangerous or impassable travel conditions."
- The forecast conditions are expected Friday through Sunday from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
State of play: Fugate says the predictions for the upcoming storm are "dire," noting the NWS rarely uses the term "catastrophic" for major winter storms.
- He's particularly concerned about icy conditions, which he says could prevent both staff and customers from safely making it to their favorite waffles.
- "If you're looking at a quarter inch or more of ice accumulation, that starts bringing down tree limbs and power lines," he says, adding that a half inch could lead to widespread grid damage that may take days to weeks to repair.
- "This is going to be a very dangerous, probably multi day-event for people."
Go deeper: Inside NWS' effort to forecast this week's potentially historic winter storm
