Inside NWS' effort to forecast this week's potentially historic winter storm
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The National Weather Service says it's putting every available resource into forecasting this week's potentially historic winter storm — including "hurricane hunter" aircraft across two fronts.
Why it matters: Nearly 148 million Americans are facing winter storm watches spanning 2,000 miles from New Mexico to Maine as of Thursday afternoon.
Driving the news: "We're throwing everything at this because we've got to get that data into the models," NWS director Ken Graham tells Axios.
- "Little wiggles matter, so 1 or 2 degrees in either direction could be rain or freezing rain or snow. North and south 40 or 50 miles could put a major city in the ice or the snow or just rain."
- "It is a complicated, tricky forecast, so we're really trying to refine it the best we can."
The latest: The system could affect as much as half the country's population as it trudges along late this week into early next week — a slow-mover that could dump a foot of snow in places that don't often get an inch.
- Areas across the South are facing a significant ice threat, possibly triggering power outages that could last days.
- A blast of Arctic air means whatever snow and ice falls could stick around.
What they're doing: Hurricane hunter aircraft and crews — normally associated with their eponymous phenomenon — from both NWS parent agency NOAA and the U.S. Air Force are busy collecting invaluable data for forecasters.
- Among their tools: "dropsondes" — probes dropped from aircraft that collect and transmit weather data as they fall.
- Those aircraft are flying over both the Pacific and the Gulf to collect useful intel for predicting this far-reaching storm — a rare multifront effort.
Between the lines: Last year's layoffs and voluntary resignations at NOAA aren't hampering NWS' work, Graham says.
- "We've been able to be ready for every hurricane. We're ready for hurricane season. We're ready for severe weather season, and we're ready for this winter weather season."
- "We haven't missed a beat, and we're hiring."
The bottom line: Graham's message for folks in the storm's path... Prepare now and stay safe.
- Keep your generators outside in a well-ventilated spot.
- Don't overexert yourself shoveling.
- Don't approach downed power lines.
