A different kind of Oscar gold: Fans flood prediction markets
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A lot more people are putting cold, hard cash on the line to back up their Oscars predictions this year.
Why it matters: It's not just the Academy Awards. In the era of prediction markets, entertainment fans can invest their cash to forecast the outcomes of everything from Rotten Tomatoes scores to celebrity divorces.
By the numbers: The number of traders participating in culture-based prediction markets has multiplied by 10 over the past year, according to data from Kalshi, one of the space's top players.
- From December 2024 to December 2025, the total volume of dollars traded in the space quadrupled.
Zoom in: Kalshi reports that the trading volume around this year's Golden Globes grew 165% compared to 2025's event.
- But some viewers weren't thrilled about the show's repetitive plugs of Polymarket — the prediction market it partnered with for this year's ceremony — claiming they spoiled the results.
State of play: Culture-based prediction markets can often be wildly reactive to recent events.
- Kalshi's market for the Best Supporting Actor race at the Oscars saw Stellan Skarsgard as the favorite for his role in "Sentimental Value" for most of December until he failed to be nominated for an Actors Award in early January.
- He briefly plunged down to third before winning the Golden Globe four days later and reclaiming the lead by a wide margin.
The other side: There has been recent concern about insider trading on prediction markets, especially by government officials, after suspicious movement on the platform ahead of the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
- Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said this month that he'd be in favor of a federal ban on government officials using prediction markets, insisting his platform already does so.
What we're watching: The 98th Academy Awards are set for March 15 — and, right now, predictions markets agree on one thing: there look to be very few real toss-ups out there.
- Kalshi's Best Picture winner market has "One Battle After Another" way out ahead of "Sinners," much as it has since October.
