The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market
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The golden handcuffs are slipping: For the first time since 2020, the share of U.S. homeowners with mortgages set at 6% and higher, exceeds those with mortgages below 3%.
Why it matters: It's a sign that the pervasive rate lock that's kept the housing market on ice is loosening — good news for anyone looking to move.
- Still, it's just the lightest of thaws. 80% of mortgage holders still have rates below 6%, according to federal data, analyzed by Realtor.com.
- The average rate on the 30-year mortgage is currently sitting at 6.16%, according to Freddie Mac's data, and hasn't dipped below 6% since 2022.
Zoom in: The share of homeowners with higher mortgage rates has steadily increased because ... life happens. People need to move, they marry, divorce, retire, downsize, have kids.
- Not everyone can stay in their house, and hang on to the ultra low mortgage rate they nabbed back in the COVID era.
Where it stands: For the past few years, both high home prices and high mortgage rates priced many out of the market. But there are some small green shoots:
- Mortgage rates have been falling. They're well off their highs of 7% in 2023 — and last week, briefly dipped to 5.99% after President Trump said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be buying up more mortgage bonds.
- Home sales are still pretty anemic, but in some regions of the country there are signs of increased activity. "There are these pockets emerging," says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.
The big picture: The rate lock switcheroo comes at a time when President Trump looks desperate to lower home prices.
- Over the past few weeks, he's floated a raft of policy proposals to try and move mortgage rates down, and juice demand.
- The administration has even toyed with the idea of "portable mortgages," which would allow mortgage holders to sell their house, but bring their low mortgage-rate along to their new home.
- It's an idea that experts think would be very difficult to implement.
What to watch: Data on existing home sales for December 2025 is out later Wednesday morning.
