JD's 2028 plotting: Vance's next moves

Vance aides say he's focused on next November's midterms, not thinking about 2028. But talking with outside Vance allies and others familiar with his thinking, Axios stitched together the VP's five-pronged plan for making 2026 pay off later:

1. Be a loyal VP. Vance's biggest priority is to show he's loyal to Trump above all else. Trump is the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and that won't change before 2028 kicks off. So for Vance to be the GOP nominee, he'll need Trump's strong backing.

• Republicans expect Vance to continue to vocally support Trump's policies, even ones that aren't always popular with some parts of the GOP. At the same time, Vance will try to lay the groundwork for 2028 — without eclipsing his boss.

2. Stay out of MAGA's civil war. Vance has no intention of taking sides in the civil war among celebrity MAGA podcasters, who are fighting bitterly and publicly over antisemitism and America's role abroad.

• The feuds were a backdrop for Vance's appearance earlier this month at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, where he condemned "endless, self-defeating purity tests," and said he "didn't bring a list of conservatives to denounce or to deplatform."
• Republicans close to Vance say he knows it makes no sense to antagonize any MAGA faction so far in advance of the 2028 primary. Vance, who was close friends with Charlie Kirk, has made opposition to censorship a key part of his political identity.
• One person familiar with Vance's thinking said he's working to be a "voice of unity against the left."

3. Raise big money. Vance was named finance chair of the Republican National Committee, helping him meet top donors nationwide long before a 2028 campaign.

• The VP has deep connections among Silicon Valley billionaires, but still needs to cultivate more traditional GOP fundraisers and check-writers.
• Locking down big donors will also help Vance deprive potential GOP challengers — including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri — of the cash they'd need.

4. Play big in '26. Vance is expected to spend much of next year campaigning for Republican midterm candidates. That'll help him earn chits, deepen his ties to local organizers and activists, and get new allies who could be helpful for what's next.

• He'll also hone his skills on the stump.
• Keeping the GOP's congressional majorities is key to the White House agenda in 2027 and 2028 — which could help motivate Republican voters in the next presidential election.

• And if Republicans defy history and perform better than expected in the midterms, Vance could get some credit.

5. Lean on an influencer army. Vance could soon face fire from would-be Republican challengers. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky edged into that territory last week on ABC's "This Week," refusing to back Vance as the party's next standard-bearer.

• Republicans familiar with Vance's thinking say that hitting back would diminish his stature. Instead, he'll try to rely on conservative online personalities who've long been in his corner, including Donald Trump Jr. and Jack Posobiec. Many of those figures advocated for Trump to pick Vance.

What they're saying: William Martin, communications director to the vice president, told Axios that Vance "has been very clear since taking office in January that his number one priority would be helping President Trump fulfill their campaign promises of secure borders, affordable prices and safety in our communities. That's exactly what they've done during their historic first year in office together."

• "In the new year, Vice President Vance will continue delivering on those promises while campaigning aggressively with Republicans across the country to win the midterms."

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