Maduro tests Trump with "Plan B" oil tanker strategy

• "Maduro just does not know who he's messing with," a Trump adviser told Axios on Friday.
• A day earlier, Trump told NBC he wouldn't rule out going to war.

Zoom in: Maduro's backers lauded him for calling Trump's "bluff," but analysts saw the decision to dispatch the two tankers that aren't on the U.S. sanctions list as a way to appear defiant without challenging Trump too much.

• "This is Plan B by Maduro," said Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers.com, which monitors global oil shipping.
• Madani said dozens of tankers on the sanctions list are remaining in Venezuelan waters to avoid capture by U.S. forces.

Zoom out: Called Operation Southern Spear, the unprecedented U.S. armada off Venezuela's shores began as a drug interdiction effort that so far has resulted in the destruction of 28 boats that allegedly were running cocaine, and the killing of at least 104 people.

• Trump has never fully admitted he's seeking to oust Maduro, whom the U.S. accuses of "narco-terrorism" and election theft. But advisers and analysts say the U.S. policy is clear: regime change.
• Last week, Trump escalated the operation by seizing a sanctioned vessel carrying about 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. On Tuesday he announced the blockade.

Between the lines: The two large unsanctioned tankers, which departed Venezuela on Thursday, now present an opportunity for Trump to escalate. His advisers say the vessels, bound for China, can be seized for three main reasons:

1. Trump declared Venezuela's government to be a "Foreign Terrorist Organization," or FTO, on Tuesday when he announced the blockade.
2. Trump on Nov. 24 slapped an FTO designation on the Cartel de los Soles, which the Department of Justice accused Maduro of running in 2020 when he was indicted for alleged cocaine trafficking.
3. Venezuela's oil ministry, known by its initials in Spanish as PDVSA, has been under U.S. sanctions since 2019.

The intrigue: For all of the missile strikes, killings and threats, Trump hasn't applied what's known as "maximum pressure" on Venezuela.

• Chevron is the only oil company the administration recognizes as having a legitimate right to operate in Venezuela under a license. That arrangement gives Caracas access to hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil daily that aren't subject to U.S. sanctions.
• The U.S. Treasury Department also hasn't sanctioned scores of oil tankers.

Yes, but: Treasury is sanctioning more vessels, giving the administration more of a pretext to seize them. The department also is placing financial sanctions on specific members of Maduro's family and on businessmen associated with the regime, more of which were announced Friday.

What they're saying: Maduro and his government have denounced the "piracy" of the United States, denounced Trump's "fanciful and incoherent" rantings on social media and labeled his oil-grab a "neo-colonial" exercise.

• Venezuela has petitioned the U.N. to intervene. In a statement Wednesday, its National Bolivarian Armed Forces invoked the spirit of the country's revolutionary founder and pledged to resist the U.S.
• "As we commemorate the 195th anniversary of the death of Simón Bolívar, we tell the US government and its president that we are not intimidated by their crude and arrogant threats; that Bolívar himself, and many other heroes of American emancipation, taught us how to fight and defeat powerful empires, and that the dignity of this nation is neither negotiable nor easily defeated," the statement said.