Trump's Venezuela blockade fuels new legal uncertainty

• The president specified he wanted only to halt U.S.-sanctioned tankers, leaving unclear if he intended a military blockade or simply more aggressive law enforcement.
• International law professors, think tankers and economic scholars say that while many unknowns remain, it marks a sharp escalation in Trump's squeeze on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Between the lines: On Truth Social, Trump declared a "TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela" on Tuesday, claiming the country owes the U.S. "Oil, Land, and other Assets."

• Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller echoed Trump in a Wednesday X post, writing that Caracas' "tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property."
• Ryan Goodman, an NYU School of Law professor and co-editor-in-chief at Just Security, told Axios, "There is no legal justification for a military blockade based on the grievances President Trump listed."

Yes, but: Under international law, a blockade is a military operation that prevents vessels — enemy and neutral — from accessing ports or coastlines.

• A blockade is "different than merely claiming the right to interdict vessels suspected of being under sanction," Dylan Williams of the Center for International Policy tells Axios.
• It comes down to implementation: If executed as an actual blockade, it "would be an act of war under international law," Williams says.

Zoom out: The confusion underscores the complications that arise when a president announces critical foreign policy decisions via social media rather than through formal diplomatic channels.

Catch up quick: The U.S. seized the "Skipper" earlier this month using a standard seizure warrant. That oil tanker was considered "stateless" (flying a false flag) and had a history of carrying Iranian oil, giving the U.S. grounds to act.

• The New York Times reported Wednesday that Maduro ordered his navy to escort non-sanctioned ships carrying petroleum products toward Asia, elevating fears of a confrontation with U.S. forces.

"Stolen" assets?

Reality check: David Goldwyn, the president of consulting firm Goldwyn Global Strategies and a former State Department official, tells Axios "there's no historical basis for claiming that Venezuela's natural resources ever belonged to the United States."

• Venezuela was ordered to pay billions over charges of expropriation by an international arbitration panel. Those claims are now in the debt collection stage, he says.
• "There's not only no basis for the U.S. to invade or blockade Venezuela to collect on those debts ... but the broader claim ... is just specious on its face," he adds.

What lawmakers and experts say Trump's blockade means

Friction point: Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) wrote Tuesday that a "naval blockade is unquestionably an act of war."

• Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, seconded that on MS NOW.

Friction point: The U.S. "loses credibility if statements like these are made but never followed through," Goodman writes to Axios. "And maintaining credibility is important in achieving all sorts of U.S. foreign policy goals."

Goldwyn says he took the post itself "with a grain of salt" and is awaiting further clarification from the State and Treasury Departments.

• The Pentagon directed questions to the White House. The Treasury Department and the State Department did not comment, and the White House directed Axios to the president's Truth Social post.

Experts say while Trump has framed the Caribbean operation as drug enforcement, increasingly, it appears regime change is a goal.

• "If the principal goal of Operation Southern Spear is to protect Americans from illicit fentanyl, it's hard to see how this escalation with Venezuela does anything but distract from that objective," Goodman writes.
• White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told Vanity Fair that Trump "wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle."

What we're watching: The Venezuelan government slammed the blockade in a statement as an "extravagant threat" and a "grave violation of international law."

Go deeper: "Quite a buffet": U.S. ready to seize more tankers with Venezuelan oil

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a response from the White House.