Dec 10, 2025 - Politics & Policy

Exclusive poll: Where voters are most persuadable on ACA subsidies

Stef W. Kight

Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), John Barrasso, (R-Wyo.) and Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) during a news conference at the US Capitol — Sens. Tom Cotton (from left) and John Barrasso and Majority Leader John Thune during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Half of Republicans and 60% of voters overall said they supported extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits that expire in a few weeks — but many can be persuaded, according to new GOP polling.

Why it matters: A clear majority likes the subsidies, but there's significant support for the GOP's desired changes, including work requirements and redirecting the funding straight to individual health spending accounts.

The survey comes ahead of major show votes on Republican and Democratic health care plans in the Senate. Both are expected to fail on Thursday.
It was conducted on behalf of a PAC linked to Senate Republican Conference chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

What to watch: Look for Republicans to double down against a "clean" extension of the credits.

Overall support for extending the tax credits dropped to just 34% after respondents were presented with the GOP arguments and trade-offs.
The survey tested five GOP talking points on the issue, which were particularly influential with Republicans and independents.
"These subsidies don't actually lower healthcare costs and won't stop premiums from increasing, they just shift the cost to taxpayers while insurance companies keep charging high prices," was the most effective line.

Zoom in: About 60% of voters approved of multiple plans for dealing with the tax credits, including redirecting subsidy money into HSAs — the most popular idea on the list.

This is at the heart of the Senate GOP bill and President Trump's demands.

Still, about half of voters also endorsed Democrats' idea of a three-year extension with no changes, though it received the most opposition in the poll.

Zoom out: Voters were overwhelmingly satisfied with their current health insurance (81%) and most likely to blame insurance companies (29%) for rising costs.

Republicans were far more likely than Democrats or independents to place cost blame on the ACA and illegal immigrants.

Methodology: The survey was conducted online by Gray House between Dec. 6 and 8th, involving 2,058 registered voters. There is 2.2% margin of error.

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Exclusive poll: Where voters are most persuadable on ACA subsidies

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